The prospects for renewable energy look wonderful.
While hydro remains the largest renewable source globally at around 800 GW, the
new renewables are coming up fast behind. There is now over 238GW(e) of wind
turbine capacity in place globally, while PV solar has reached 70GW(pk), and
both are still expanding rapidly- wind could double in the next 5 years, PV treble.
For now however, taken together,
wind and PV capacity is about the same as that of the global nuclear fleet,
although the load factors are of course much lower. Even so, wind now supplies
more kWh than nuclear in the USA and in Germany wind supplies about the same
kWhs pa as gas, while overall renewables there now supply about the same kWh pa
as hard coal or about the same as nuclear.
In addition to the headline-grabbing wind and
PV, in the background few realise that there’s 245GW(th) of solar thermal in use around the world,
more capacity that wind, delivering heat. There is also an ever expanding
amount of biomass use- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) suggests that up to
20% of global energy could be provided by modern biomass/biogas/AD technology without damaging food
production. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=1606
The new marine technologies are moving ahead well. Global spending
on wave and tidal energy may reach US $1.2 billion by 2015, according to the energy business analysts
Douglas-Westwood in their World
Wave & Tidal Market Report 2011-2015. And according to the UK Carbon Trust,
the total global market for both wave and tidal energies could be worth £40
billion per annum by 2050.
The UK is well placed to exploit most of these
technologies and markets.
Technology Innovation Needs Assessments (‘TINAs’)
for UK green energy technologies have recently been produced by the DECC backed
Low Carbon Innovation Coordination Group (LCICG), on offshore wind and marine energy.
The offshore wind TINA says ‘innovation is critical to enabling the deployment
and cutting the cost of offshore wind power, with an estimated saving to the
energy system of £18-89bn to 2050’. It adds, innovation can also help ‘create
UK based business opportunities that could contribute an estimated £7-35bn to
GDP to 2050’.
The Marine TINA says that ‘the UK has a large
natural resource of marine energy that could make a meaningful contribution to
the UK energy mix from around 2025. Cost of energy generated will need to reach
around £100/MWh by 2025 for marine energy to be competitive with other
technologies. This pathway is ambitious but possible with significant
innovation. If successful, innovation in Marine energy could save the energy
system approximately £3-8bn and help create a UK industry that could contribute
an estimated £1-4bn to GDP up to 2050.’
LCICG also looked at advanced electricity
networks and storage (EN&S) technologies, which it says ‘have the potential
to address new stresses that are likely to be placed on the electricity system,
and to do so more cost-effectively than would be possible through traditional
methods of grid reinforcement and fossil-fuel-powered system balancing
capacity. EN&S technologies could play an important role in the future
energy system, supporting the uptake of renewable electricity generation,
renewable heat, electric vehicles (EVs), and other low carbon technologies.
Innovation in EN&S technologies could save the UK £4-19bn to 2050 and could
help create UK-based business opportunities that could contribute an estimated
£6-34bn to GDP to 2050.
TINAs on bioenergy, hydrogen, heating are due
soon. www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/funding/funding_ops/innovation/tinas/tinas.aspx
When you put all these technologies together, it
is relatively easy to create a scenario in which renewables can supply around
75% of UK electricity by 2030, as Friends of the Earth have just done: www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefing_notes/electriciy_mix_2030.pdf
Going further
there is the EPSRC backed 2050 Transition Pathways study includes a grass roots
community based scenario with ~120TWh of local CHP! See www.lowcarbonpathways.org.uk/lowcarbon/conference/A_Short_Guide_to_UK_Transition_Pathways.pdf
And coming soon, a set of scenarios for Pugwash
UK, using the DECC 2050 Pathways Calculator, including one in which renewables
supply 100% of all UK energy by 2050
Systems with large contributions of variable
renewables like this will need balancing, but it turns out that there are
plenty of options. When
necessary, some demand can be managed to delay peaks and power can be imported
via supergrid links when there are local shortfalls in supply and be balanced
by exports of the occasional excess power we will have from the variable
renewables. In addition, for
longer term balancing, we could convert some of the excess wind, wave, and
tidal power that will sometimes be generated to hydrogen gas, to use as a fuel
for when wind etc availability is low and demand high. So you don’t need fossil
fuel plant for backup. Or of
course nuclear.
In parallel with these larger scale
developments, there is also a role for local community based projects. 3.5GW worth of locally-owned renewable schemes could
be installed by 2020 if the Government supports community energy, according to
a coalition of organisations including the Co-operative, the National Trust,
the Church of England and the Women's Institute.
A poll commissioned by The
Co-operative found 68 % of the public would support local renewable energy
projects that were owned by and benefited the community, compared to just 7%
that would not. Paul Monaghan, head of social goals at the Co-operative, said: "
Our towns, villages and districts are full of hundreds of groups all chomping
at the bit to do their bit to generate and save energy locally and fight
climate change."
Ed Mayo, secretary general of
Co-operatives UK, said: "There is huge enthusiasm for
co-operatively-owned energy. But it is very difficult for co-operatives to
compete in the energy market as regulations and incentives are
designed for the bigger players”.
They want national targets
for community energy, promotion of local ownership to increase public
acceptance of renewables, Government-backed advice and support, higher
subsidies for community schemes, tax breaks for investors and access to finance
through the new green investment bank. Let’s hope that can be fought for and
obtained.
