tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91008518397719542052024-03-13T13:25:50.334-07:00Dave ElliottI want to try to inject a bit of factual info on the issues I know about- energy and climate policy - drawing out the wider political points that we have a government wedded to market competition and that is stalling efforts to steer us towards dealing with climate change. Information is power so I will persist. Surviving climate change is a prerequisite for any society and the issues that are involved link to the wider agenda of how we develop industrially, economically and socially.Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.comBlogger112125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-58749084034788394202018-02-02T05:55:00.000-08:002018-02-02T05:55:28.561-08:00This Blog has now shifted over to Renew Extra: http://renewextra.blogspot.co.ukDave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-85465929942171154492018-01-01T07:02:00.001-08:002018-01-01T07:32:18.734-08:00Climate change revisited- a New Year special <div class="MsoNormal">
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It’s one of the most talked about issues, but views remain
polarised. On one hand the vast bulk of scientists in the field are said to think
that greenhouse gas emissions from past, current and proposed human activities
in energy production and use (as well as from farming and land use), threaten
to constrain future human and ecosystem health and even survival. So we have to
stop adding carbon dioxide (and methane) to the atmosphere- which for example,
centrally, means no more fossil fuel burning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On the other hand, there are those who say that it’s all phoney and
alarmist, or at least marginal, based on dubious computer models and/or
misinterpreted or spurious data. Even worse are the ‘green’ remedies that are
proposed- they wont work and will undermine global economies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s take the science first. Here is a useful summary of
the IPCC’s agreed position- actually produced by the usually climate-contrarian
Energy Matters group:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://euanmearns.com/catastrophic-climate-change-a-reminder-of-what-the-ipcc-actually-said/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://euanmearns.com/catastrophic-climate-change-a-reminder-of-what-the-ipcc-actually-said/</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Although the IPCC is careful to stress the uncertainties, it
does offers some pretty solid<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>conclusions, and in general they seem to he hardening as more data<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is collected and more analysis is carried out
and debated: <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998e"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998e</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Indeed, while some say the climate models are not reliable,
it seems even early ones were in fact quite good: <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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although Hanson’s (then at NASA) was a bit high<a href="https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/hansens-1988-predictions-revisited.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">:
https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/hansens-1988-predictions-revisited.html</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction.htm"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction.htm</span></a>
Even so temperatures all go the same way- up: <a href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/847095273889312768?s=09"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/847095273889312768?s=09</span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Certainly the warming pattern seems clear and strong: see
this neat animated chart: <a href="http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2016/05/spiral_optimized.gif"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2016/05/spiral_optimized.gif</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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However, there remain disagreements about how confident we
can be about the conclusions and the overall approach used- though these days we
hear less overall climate change denial, or rival explanations for it- nicely
seen off by this Bloomberg assessment: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world</span></a>/
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Nevertheless, some contrarians (and in this case the US
Energy Secretary) still sometimes say that, while warming may exist, we’re not
looking in the right place for an explanation: <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/energy-chief-carbon-dioxide-not-prime-driver-of-warming-/3906947.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">www.voanews.com/a/energy-chief-carbon-dioxide-not-prime-driver-of-warming-/3906947.html</span></a>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Other says that, while there may be climate effects, they
vary and have recently slowed- the so called ‘warming pause’. While explanations
for that vary, a majority view seems to be that warming has continued but mainly
in the oceans:<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jun/26/new-study-confirms-the-oceans-are-warming-rapidly"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jun/26/new-study-confirms-the-oceans-are-warming-rapidly</span></a>
Certainly the data looks quite convincing: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/3/3/e1601545/F4.large.jpg"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/3/3/e1601545/F4.large.jpg</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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The point being that an air temperature rise pause or slow
down does not necessarily undermine the central overall warming case: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v545/n7652/full/nature22315.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v545/n7652/full/nature22315.html</span></a>
Indeed some say the pause was never real: <a href="http://www.sonnenseite.com/en/science/whats-left-of-the-warming-pause.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.sonnenseite.com/en/science/whats-left-of-the-warming-pause.html</span></a>
Certainly, the effects of warming<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>continue e.g. the ice cap data seems ever more dire: <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum</span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08052017/arctic-permafrost-thawing-alaska-temperatures-co2-emissions"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08052017/arctic-permafrost-thawing-alaska-temperatures-co2-emissions</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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The battle nevertheless goes on, with polarised views and
inverse interpretations still emerging: <a href="http://www.thegwpf.com/new-study-confirms-the-warming-pause-is-real-and-revealing/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.thegwpf.com/new-study-confirms-the-warming-pause-is-real-and-revealing/</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.thegwpf.com/despite-denial-global-temperatures-are-dropping-fast/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.thegwpf.com/despite-denial-global-temperatures-are-dropping-fast/</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Given the evident solidity of the science, some scientists
have tired of the endless debates and have gone for bold, essentially political
and emotional, statements: ‘We are close to the tipping point where global
warming becomes irreversible, Trump’s actions could push the earth over the
brink, to become like Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees, and raining
sulfuric acid. Climate change is one of the great dangers we face, and it’s one
we can prevent if we act now. By denying the evidence of climate change &
pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, Donald Trump will cause avoidable environmental
damage to our beautiful planet, endangering the natural world for us and our
children’.Prof. Stephen Hawking: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40461726"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40461726</span></a></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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That didn’t go down well in some circles: ‘Venus has about
220,000 times as much CO2 in its atmosphere as does Earth’ and we’ve only seen
a 50% rise here so far. <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/stephen-hawking-flies-off-the-scientific-reservation"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/stephen-hawking-flies-off-the-scientific-reservation</span></a></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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However, as the debate has polarized, some scientists in the
USA especially, evidently feel desperate: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/im-a-climate-scientist-and-im-not-letting-trickle-down-ignorance-win"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/im-a-climate-scientist-and-im-not-letting-trickle-down-ignorance-win</span></a>
and perhaps it is not surprising that the claims about possible out- comes have
become more extreme: e.g.: <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html</span></a>
with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the media running increasingly
apocalyptic reports: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/climate-change-game-over-global-warming-climate-sensitivity-seven-degrees-a7407881.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/climate-change-game-over-global-warming-climate-sensitivity-seven-degrees-a7407881.html</span></a>
Some see this sort of thing as counterproductive: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/stop-scaring-people-about-climate-change-it-doesnt-work"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://grist.org/climate-energy/stop-scaring-people-about-climate-change-it-doesnt-work</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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And it may be unnecessary: the data suggests that climate
change is accepted as reality by many people- even in the USA: <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/</span></a>
Though the views of the current US leadership may be a different matter!<o:p></o:p></div>
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While clearly there are bitter political feuds going on in
the USA and elsewhere over the wider climate science issues, at the practical
level the main disagreements are often more about what to do in response to
climate change, when proposals for change begin to hit vested interest groups
and communities. The US under Trump is digging in on coal! Most of the rest of
the world want renewables, and that is happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are some technical and strategic
arguments which can muddy the water. In the short term some say cleaned-up coal
and gas (with CCS) is the only realistic option. That’s seen by some opponents
as mainly a delaying tactic, although some do have hopes for CCS. Similarly for
nuclear, either fission (increasingly dubious) or longer term fusion (still
very uncertain). Others think that things are so bad that we will have to accept
what look like potentially dangerous geo-engineering ideas: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/magazine/is-it-ok-to-engineer-the-environment-to-fight-climate-change.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/magazine/is-it-ok-to-engineer-the-environment-to-fight-climate-change.html</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.boell.de/en/2017/03/16/climate-geoengineering-experimenting-global-thermostat"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.boell.de/en/2017/03/16/climate-geoengineering-experimenting-global-thermostat</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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There is a debate about what can be achieved given the
current political situation: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals</span></a>
But most progressives think that we need to move as fast as possible with
renewables and energy efficiency - and that this can work to save the planet to
everyone’s benefit long term. We just need the political will to do that. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Given this view, the climate debate may seem tiresome, and to
get in the way of ameliorative technological and policy progress. However, it
can’t be ignored. Indeed, that could be a bad idea. After all, if nothing else,
it is wise to always check out deviant views- that’s how good science works,
through challenges. Some may see the climate science as now ‘done’ and
irrefutable, but it’s just conceivable that some new interpretation of the
data, or new data, will emerge from the debate, or there may be unexpected
changes in climate and Greenhouse Gas interactions, which will mean that a
rethink is needed. Indeed, some adjustments have already been proposed: <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-c-may-still-be-possible-1.22627"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.nature.com/news/limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-c-may-still-be-possible-1.22627</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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But that’s just about timing – we may have a bit more time
than we thought. <o:p></o:p></div>
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There will be more challenges, although the technical
quality and credibility of some of them can vary, as can the politics behind
them: <a href="http://bit.ly/2ciEPpV"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://bit.ly/2ciEPpV</span></a> and<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.naturalnews.com/052179_global_warming_science_fraud_globalist_control_agenda.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.naturalnews.com/052179_global_warming_science_fraud_globalist_control_agenda.html</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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However, although we can probably ignore some crazy views,
like Trumps assertion that climate change was invented by China, we should not
be not about shutting down debates- even if they seem overly political or
unscientific. The reality is that science (or interpretations of it) and political
views do interact, and not always productively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And it is probably impossible to stop that and indeed trying to do so
may be undesirable- it is how dogmas get established, but it is also how they
get challenged- we always need dissent. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Of course there have to be limits. We need the best science
we can get, open to challenge and constantly tested, but we can’t keep arguing
over the basics for ever. Given the overall apparently mostly consistent upward
trend in temperatures and the weight of evidence on impacts, arguably we can’t afford
to ignore the potential implications. Or delay attempts to respond. The latter
is clearly what some contrarians want- they seem implacably opposed to change. Willful
obstructionism may persist even in the case of response options which could
beneficial even if climate change turns out to be less of a threat that most
think. For example, most of the responses to climate change will also deal with
the air pollution crisis hitting some newly industrializing countries.
Responses to that are getting urgent. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The Global Warming Policy Forum recently portrayed the climate
debate as a reflecting ‘Manichean paranoia,’ a term used by the late US
statesman Zbigniew Brzezinski to describe a worldview in which your
opponent is considered to be malign and willfully ignorant, whereas your
own side is noble and uniquely enlightened. Well maybe, but the deeper reality
may be that the climate debate is really just a front or a proxy for more
fundamental disagreements about which way to go- centralised corporate
fossil-based energy technology, and perhaps nuclear, versus decentralized/green
energy. That’s certainly a recognisable battle and one that looks like it’s being
won by the latter in many situations, as pollution worries grow and renewables
get cheaper and boom globally. No wonder the GWPF and its ilk now spend so much
of their time trying to undermine renewables.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although the Trump regime seems to be taking it well beyond
that: <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/07/usda-climate-change-language-censorship-emails"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/07/usda-climate-change-language-censorship-emails</span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and some arguably remain beyond the pale in
their denial: <a href="http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/07/Clive-James.pdf"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/07/Clive-James.pdf</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
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Perhaps the best that can be done in the circumstances is to
continue to publish the science results: <a href="http://www.ametsoc.net/sotc2016/StateoftheClimate2016_lowres.pdf"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.ametsoc.net/sotc2016/StateoftheClimate2016_lowres.pdf</span></a>
And to challenge nonsense when it appears: <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/07/26/heartlands-6-reasons-to-be-a-climate-change-skeptic-are-six-demonstrable-lies/#723d43856189"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/07/26/heartlands-6-reasons-to-be-a-climate-change-skeptic-are-six-demonstrable-lies/
- 723d43856189</span></a> While getting on with renewables. And hoping for
changed views from the likes of Trump: <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-wont-withdraw-from-paris-climate-deal-1505593922"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-wont-withdraw-from-paris-climate-deal-1505593922</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-73923951591005137332017-12-01T12:40:00.001-08:002017-12-01T12:42:24.970-08:00How not to win – on wave energy <div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-themecolor: text1;">Wave energy was once talked up as the next
big thing- and something the UK could excel at. It had the best wave resource-
much of it off Scotland. And it had the technological lead, with Stephen Salter’s
pioneering ‘Nodding Duck’, Wavegen’s success with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>prototype shore-line devices, and some
government support- all then crowned by the apparently world beating Pelamis ‘wave
snake’ and Oyster ‘hinged clam’ devices. </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">To
move things along, the UK invested heavily in full-scale ‘open-sea’ test
facilities, including EMEC in Scotland (opened in 2004) and WaveHub (established
in 2010) in Cornwall and device teams from around the world were invited the UK
to test their ideas. These sites include dock facilities and electricity grid
connections. EMEC also offered ‘nursery’ sites (e.g. EMEC’s Scapa Flow) for
testing of earlier stage, part-scale prototypes in less hostile conditions.
WaveHub partnered with FabTest, a nursery test site situated near Falmouth. All
seemed set for accelerated development. There was talk of a 10% or even 20% UK
electricity contribution, ultimately…</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">However,
things did not go to plan. Indeed, the plans seem to have been faulty. As novel
technologies, the wave devices all needed financial support to get established-
R&D funding initially and then some form of market enablement backing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what was offered was not enough and was poorly
targeted, with regularly shifting targets. A</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;"> new
report on the UK <b>wave energy</b> programme from Imperial College and
Strathclyde University notes how multiple attempts were made to provide
support, but none succeeded due to the poor design of the support schemes. They
were overly concerned with limiting the expenditure and getting costs down
quickly.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">Those with long memories may recall the spat that
occurred in the 1980s when the incoming Conservative government cut R&D
funding for wave energy and its later reinstatement by a Labour administration.
More recently, it has been the handling of the market enablement programme that
has led to significant problems. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A case
in point is the Marine Renewables Deployment Fund</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-themecolor: text1;"> (MRDF) which, from 2004, offered
£42m for tidal current turbine and wave energy projects. However, it required
projects to have proven themselves at sea at commercial scale for 3 months. No
one was likely to build something speculatively in the hope of obtaining
funding later! None tried. Only MCT’s Seagen tidal project made it through to
the 2ROC/MWh of operational support then being offered to tidal current and
wave projects under the <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Renewables
Obligation- and MCT didn’t use the MRDF. No wave projects got through</span>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-themecolor: text1;">In
2008, the Renewables Advisory Board rather lamely said <i>‘The MRDF is
fundamentally a sound scheme.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It, in
itself, is not a failure, but the R&D process has failed to supply the
technologies that the MRDF was established to support.’ </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the scheme was fine but the technology
wasn’t ready!</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"> </span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-themecolor: text1;">As a bit of a botch,
the government did then introduce a<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">n
interim £22m Marine Renewables <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Proving </i>Fund,
to make projects viable for the MRDF, but that too failed to attract any
takers.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">The current situation is not much better. Wave and
tidal stream projects are eligible for CfD support, and were even guaranteed a
protected 100MW tranche @ £305/MWh in the first CfD round, but none were able
to take this up and the protected slot was removed in the second CfD round.
Tidal steam projects, like the big Meygen scheme in Pentland Firth, have gone
ahead with their own money, EU support and/or demonstration grants, but wave
energy mostly trails behind at the R& D stage, with funding being cut back.
Although, in 2013, the Scottish government offered £13m in support for two
larger projects, they didn’t go ahead, with Pelamis and Oyster both going bust.
The Scottish government rescued some of the staff, setting up a residual
programme, but at present the focus is on R&D and small system testing and
development. Some of this looks promising e.g.: the 1MW Wello Penguin on test
at the Orkney EMEC site, with EU funding: </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #243cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://tidalenergytoday.com/2017/04/07/penguin-wave-device-powers-uk-grid/
</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge2017-Medium; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">However, overall, although new ideas continue to emerge, costs are still
high, R&D funding is falling, further EU funding for UK work looks
uncertain after BREXIT, and the prospects for the immediate future in the UK do
not look good- although the EU does have a continuing programme. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #243cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: times;">Could it have been done better? Given the harsh
maritime environment, the technology has proved hard to develop, with several
very visible disasters (e.g. the sinking of the 2MW Osprey in a storm off
Scotland in 1995) and costs have remained high. But in theory, a properly
funded programme might have helped things move along more successfully– if the
focus had not always been on getting to low costs quickly. There is a new CfD
round</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;">planned for 2019 with ‘less
established technologies’ being eligible. It seems unlikely, but wave energy </span><i style="font-family: times;">might</i><span style="font-family: times;"> be one of them, despite the high
cost.</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: times;">Would it be worth it? Well, the UK wave energy
resource is very large, with the winds that blow over the Atlantic creating
huge swells. </span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;">The resultant wave energy,
in effect stored wind energy, persists for some while after the winds have died
down, so using it avoids some of the variability problems of wind. But it may
take more time to develop viable extraction technologies.</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;">Tidal stream systems, operating on the
regular back and forth tidal ebbs and flows in the relatively calm undersea
environment, are easier options, although the tidal steam resource may not be
as large as that for wave energy. Though for the moment, that’s where most
effort in the marine renewables field in the UK and elsewhere is focussed,
along with</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;">growing interest in tidal
lagoons. There are some surviving tethered buoy-type wave projects around the
word (e.g. OPT in the USA and CETO in Australia), and some in the UK (e.g.
Seatricity and Searaser) and more may emerge. However, while niche markets may
exist for small wave projects in remote locations, and wave energy development is
far from dead in the water, for now, with budgets tight, sadly the full, vast,
global wave resource seems beyond capture on any significant scale.</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: times;">‘Lost at Sea or a new wave of innovation?’ </span><a href="https://strathcloud.sharefile.eu/app?/#/share/view/sfa07a0e490740cea" style="font-family: times;">https://strathcloud.sharefile.eu/app?/
- /share/view/sfa07a0e490740cea</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: times;">Some wave technology hopefuls:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Seatricty: <a href="http://seatricity.com/">http://seatricity.com/</a> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">(UK)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Searaser: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9TTi5oR-jk">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9TTi5oR-jk</a>
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">(UK)</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Wello: <a href="https://wello.eu/2017/10/29/penguin-making-records/">https://wello.eu/2017/10/29/penguin-making-records/</a>
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">(Finland)</span><span style="color: #243cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">OPT: <a href="http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com/">http://www.oceanpowertechnologies.com/</a>
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">(USA) </span><span style="color: #243cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">CETO: <a href="http://www.carnegiece.com/wave/">http://www.carnegiece.com/wave/</a>
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">(Australia)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-41013053166815790192017-10-05T03:50:00.002-07:002017-10-05T03:53:59.673-07:00Trade Unions and Nuclear power<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">The UK Trade Unions currently mostly back nuclear power. In
2016, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady noted that the Hinkley project
‘will be the largest construction project in the UK, creating 25,000
high-quality jobs and 500 apprenticeships’.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/hinkley-point-good-enws-workers-economy-not-stop"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/hinkley-point-good-enws-workers-economy-not-stop</span></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">It wasn’t always like this.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">In 1986, in the wake of
Chernobyl, the TUC backed a nuclear ‘moratorium and review’ policy. In the same
year, the Labour Party had confirmed its 1985 anti (civil) nuclear power
stance, with a two thirds majority for phasing it out. The then quite dominant
Transport and General Workers Union said it was <i>‘clear and unambiguous in
its position on nuclear power. We support a halt to nuclear expansion and a
safe and planned phase out of nuclear power in this country.’ </i>So what has changed?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">The
Labour Party had gone into the 1987 national election with a manifesto talking
of </span><i style="font-family: Times;">‘gradually diminishing Britain’s dependence upon nuclear energy’</i><span style="font-family: "times";">, but
was unable to unseat the Tories, whose subsequent electricity privatisation and
liberalisation programme (continued by Blair) put the unions on the defensive -
they sought to protect energy jobs across the board. And Blair then switched to
a pro-nuclear policy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">A
sub-text to that may have been the low level of conviction by most of the
unions at that time that renewables could provide viable alternative
employment. In its 1988 Nuclear Energy Review, the TUC said </span><i style="font-family: Times;">‘renewables are
not going to make a big contribution to Britain’s energy supplies over the next
20 years’.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><span style="font-family: "times";">Well
it’s taken nearly 30 years, but they are now big (25%) growing, and creating
jobs- with </span><span style="color: #505050; font-family: "times";">nearly
126,000 people employed in the UK renewable energy industry in 2017 according
to the REA:</span><span style="color: #505050; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.r-e-a.net/news/new-report-shows-nearly-126000-employed-in-growing-renewables-industry-but-growth-slowing"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">http://www.r-e-a.net/news/new-report-shows-nearly-126000-employed-in-growing-renewables-industry-but-growth-slowing</span></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">However,
the unions still seem unsure, and some have taken to recycling dubious
statistics and arguments to try to undermine the case for renewables. </span><span style="font-family: "times";">At its 2016 annual Congress the GMB
Union’s National Secretary, Justin Bowden, noted that <i>‘over the last 12 months there
were 46 days when wind was supplying 10% or less of the installed and connected
wind capacity to the grid’ </i>and
insisted that<i> ‘until there is a
scientific breakthrough on carbon capture or solar storage, then nuclear and
gas are the only reliable shows in town which those advocating a renewable
energy-only policy have to accept.’</i></span><span style="font-family: "times";"> <a href="http://www.gmb.org.uk/newsroom/low-wind-days"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">www.gmb.org.uk/newsroom/low-wind-days</span></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">This doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. For over half of
those 46 low-wind days i.e. outside of winter, and for most of the nights,
overall energy demand would have been low, so a low wind input would not
matter. When it did, existing gas plants would have ramped up a bit more to
provide the extra energy needed e.g. as they do any way to meet daily peaks. As
more renewable come of the grid, other balancing measures can also be used, so
there is not really a problem. But inflexible base-load nuclear plants are no
usef or this - they can’t vary output regularly, quickly and safely. They just
get in the way of the flexible supply and demand approach that is needed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times";">The unions are not unaware of the
the benefits of renewables and do offer support for them as well as nuclear. In
her 2016 article, Frances O’Grady said <i>‘w</i></span><i><span style="font-family: "times";">hile nuclear is an important part of meeting
our future energy needs, renewable energy projects need more investment too.
Cuts to support for solar power in the last few years have led to the loss of
half the 35,000 jobs in the sector. We need sustained investment across the
renewable energy sector if we are to achieve our ambition of a carbon-free
future, and seize the chance to deliver more high-quality jobs’.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><span style="font-family: "times";">However, that’s a replay of the</span><i style="font-family: Times;"> ‘more of everything</i><span style="font-family: "times";">’ approach beloved
by the TUC, inherited from the days when they sought to avoid conflicts between
members in coal, gas, oil and nuclear, the code phrase used being</span><i style="font-family: Times;"> ‘a balanced energy system’.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><span style="font-family: "times";">There seems to be no awareness of the
opportunity cost issue. Given inevitably limited budgets, choices have to be
made: e.g. money spent of nuclear can’t be spent on other options, and for most
of the last few decades nuclear has got the lions share of what was available
for new energy technology. Thankfully that is beginning to change, although for
the pro-nuclear unions that is a cause for regret. Indeed,</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times";"> some say that some of the big unions have ended up
as corporate stooges, backing nuclear jobs at all costs:</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/26/labours-clive-lewis-accuses-nuclear-unions-of-being-voice-for-big-business">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/26/labours-clive-lewis-accuses-nuclear-unions-of-being-voice-for-big-business</a></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">Certainly, with renewables booming and eclipsing
nuclear (direct UK nuclear employment is now at around 16,000 and 65,000 in
total including indirect jobs), the nuclear unions are on the defensive. And
defending options like Hinkely is getting harder by the day. The GMB is also
finding it hard to accept the governments plan to let China fund, and maybe
build, reactors on the UK: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.gmbwalesandsouthwest.org.uk/news/caution-over-chinese-pop-up-nuclear-reactor"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://www.gmbwalesandsouthwest.org.uk/news/caution-over-chinese-pop-up-nuclear-reactor</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt; text-decoration: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times";">While that battle plays out, there
are some signs of a more positive approach, notably CaCC’s excellent <i>1 Million Climate Jobs</i> campaign. The
Unions are also broadly supportive of Labour’s new energy policy, with its
emphasis on </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";">public ownership and democratic control.
Indeed, this years Trade Union Congress backed that, with a broad climate and
energy policy motion being passed:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 15pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.cacctu.org.uk/tuc2017climatemotion"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Roboto-Regular; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">https://www.cacctu.org.uk/tuc2017climatemotion</span></a></span><span style="color: #164bff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">But that doesn’t specifically mention
nuclear. The otherwise excellent policy developed by PCS, the </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Public and Commercial
Services Union (see my next post), also in effect ducks out of the nuclear issue.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Roboto-Regular; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">The Labour Party leadership, Corbyn at times
apart, still seem to be mostly pro-nuclear, as witness the manifesto commitment
earlier this year, and the views expressed at this years Party conference by </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Labour’s<b> </b>Shadow
Secretary for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy,<b> </b>Rebecca
Long-Bailey (she backed the Moorside project), along with</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Roboto-Regular; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Nisa Landy and Caroline Flint (nuclear offered lots of jobs). However, Labour
is also strongly pro-renewables and the Party is taking an interest is some of
the political issues associated with renewables. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">The
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Repowering Britain</i> sessions at this years
Labour Party Conference were prefigured by this commentary: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘Our energy system will be radically
transformed with</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">the</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">rise</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">
</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">of
wind,</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">solar,</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular; mso-themecolor: text1;">tidal & energy storage. This clean future
should be democratically -run and owned by the people, delivering hundreds of
thousands of decent jobs for decades into the future. What does this look like?<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>We have all heard about the
small-scale energy co-operatives building solar and wind projects. But the
future also needs a bigger scale. Who will build and own the mega offshore wind
farms and tidal lagoons that will bottom line our electricity supply for the
next century?<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>Publicly owned
companies are at the forefront of building the offshore wind energy
infrastructure of the future - but they’re Danish, Swedish and German. Only
0.07% of our offshore wind is owned by the UK public’. </span></i><a href="http://labourenergy.org/labour-conference-2017/" style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: BentonSans-Regular;">http://labourenergy.org/labour-conference-2017/</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></span><span style="font-family: "times";">At the Conference, </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Shadow
Chancellor John McDonnell said that <i>‘Labour
</i></span><i><span style="font-family: "times";">will ensure we become world leaders in
decarbonising our economy. With a publicly owned energy supply based on
alternative energy sources…Ours will only become an economy for the many, if we
significantly broaden ownership. That means supporting entrepreneurs, small
businesses, the genuinely self-employed and massively expanding worker control
and the co-operative sector.’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><u><span style="color: #3938ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://press.labour.org.uk/post/165721772504/shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnell-speech-to-labour">http://press.labour.org.uk/post/165721772504/shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnell-speech-to-labour</a></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #3540ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">That’s an interesting debate, but it seems
pretty clear that </span><i style="font-family: Times;">nuclear</i><span style="font-family: "times";"> is not a
candidate for local ownership, or even UK ownership! So maybe at some point
there will be a change in view- given enough grass roots agitation. That’s what
happened in the 1980s, with grass roots groups like SERA doing much of the foot
work. While, sadly, on nuclear, it may seem that we are back where we were in
the 1980s, starting all over again to build opposition, the rapid growth of
renewables, and their continuing cost reductions, does change the situation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">For
a full account of the twists and turns of Trade Union and Labour Party policy
on nuclear power in the 1980s, see the series of OU Technology Policy Group
reports I produced: TPG Occasional Papers No. 4 (1981), 14 (1987) and 17
(1988). I can supply copies.</span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-36939308785203657432017-09-01T10:50:00.001-07:002017-09-01T10:51:48.688-07:00Community Energy: aspirations and limits<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Generating and using energy locally makes a lot of sense. It
avoids transmission loses and can enable direct ownership and control by local
users and/or community groups.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UK <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coalition Government’s <i>Community Energy
Strategy</i> in 2014, as updated in 2015, aimed to aid the growth of community
energy, with, in 2016, the Urban Community Energy Fund offering £200,000
in grants and £1m in loans, while community energy groups were offered a tax
advantaged under Social Investment Tax Relief. However, take up has been
hit by wider policy changes, and registrations in 2016 fell to just 10.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">That doesn’t mean there’s any lack of grass root activity. </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times";">‘Thousands
of community groups across the UK are developing practical, positive examples
of the zero carbon transition, ranging from waste food cafés to community
energy schemes. While many of these community-scale projects are small, they
empower and connect people, help expand the political choices available, give people
a sense of agency and help normalise sustainable behaviours. The role of
intermediary organisations that connect and support grassroots projects is very
important in helping to scale up and replicate ideas’.</span></i><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times";"> So says the Centre for Alternative
Technology in it latest update on achieving ‘Zero Carbon Britain’. </span><u><span style="color: #3359ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://zerocarbonbritain.com/images/pdfs/ZeroCarbonBritain-MakingItHappen.pdf">http://zerocarbonbritain.com/images/pdfs/ZeroCarbonBritain-MakingItHappen.pdf</a></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times";">It puts a
lot of stress of behavioural change. That is clearly important, but it has to
eventually add up to significant material change. A conference on energy change
options in Milton Keynes in February heard about some of the excellent local
initiatives backed by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Community Energy
England</i>, but they reported that the total capacity installed so far was only
188MW. Small compared to what is needed but a start. And maybe size doesn’t always
matter: at this stage it’s more about community engagement, which can lay the
basis for more things later. At least 30,000 people have invested in local
projects so far, via 222 community energy groups across the UK- 186 of them
being Community Benefit schemes- a form of co-op. Over 100 projects used PV
solar. </span><span style="color: #303bff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://communityenergyengland.org/pages/state-of-the-sector-report">https://communityenergyengland.org/pages/state-of-the-sector-report</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times";">The situation
is better though in Scotland, where the devolved governments 2020 target of
500MW of local projects has already been met. And it’s all very different in
Germany where <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">prosumers</i> and energy
co-ops are near to dominating the 100GW green energy market. But that may
change as FiT support is cut. Though the cultural changes won’t go away: so
maybe building on that is part of the way ahead. </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://communityactionmk.org/projects/cape/mkenergyalliance/">https://communityactionmk.org/projects/cape/mkenergyalliance/</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">and
<a href="http://communityenergyengland.org/">http://communityenergyengland.org/</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-themecolor: text1;">Certainly the potential for local generation
is large. A </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/drlmoebtx0700dw/AAAeGjPdsNflqv7VK6cIFRFba?dl=0"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">report</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-themecolor: text1;"> produced last year by CE Delft for green NGOs says that 19% of EU
electricity could be produced, with the right investment, by 2030, by ‘energy
citizens’, rising to 45% by 2050. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Many more
households, organisations and small enterprises could produce their own energy,
supply demand-side flexibility or store energy in times of oversupply. It says
this isn’t limited to individuals, but can include farmers, community groups,
small business, and co-operatives.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> CE Delft Report and Excel files:</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #0735ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.dropbox.com/sh/drlmoebtx0700dw/AAAeGjPdsNflqv7VK6cIFRFba?dl=0<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Clearly, community energy is well developed
in parts of the EU, with 34% of renewable supply in Germany coming from
community schemes, and in Denmark 70-80% of wind turbines were community owned
in 2013- though that’s been falling due to support cuts and buy outs. It was
much harder in the UK, given even lower financial support levels, but, in a
UK-relaying of the Delf report, it was noted that in all , including Scotland,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there were 5000 UK community energy groups,
and that community schemes create 12-13 times the community value than
privately owned schemes.</span><span style="color: #535353; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">So they were important to back. It
suggested the UK could get 44% of its electricity from them by 2050. A big
stretch from now, but a good target! Source: The UK <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Blue</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and Green</i> coverage
of the FoE/Greenpeace/EREF/RESCoop backed study: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><u style="text-underline: #420178;"><span style="color: #420178; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2016/09/26/large-growth-predicted-energy-collectives-pm-leaves-alone/">http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2016/09/26/large-growth-predicted-energy-collectives-pm-leaves-alone/</a></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Community projects also make sense
elsewhere in the world, in developing countries in particular. Foreign aid
programmes can help, as with the UN backed </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: AustinNewsTextWeb-Roman; mso-themecolor: text1;">Scaling</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: AustinNewsTextWeb-Roman; mso-themecolor: text1;">Up</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: AustinNewsTextWeb-Roman; mso-themecolor: text1;">Renewable Energy
Project, if properly administered</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">. Though the
Telegraph doesn’t like this sort of thing! </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 1.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/12/hundreds-millions-british-aid-wasted-overseas-climate-change">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/12/hundreds-millions-british-aid-wasted-overseas-climate-change</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Ethiopia, </span><span style="color: #0a002e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Font;">one of the
poorest nations in the world,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;"> has been one of the recipients of
climate related aid which has included support for a wind project. And, although
not all of this will be community based (there are some large hydro projects), </span><span style="color: #0a002e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Font;">interestingly,
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Ethiopia </span><span style="color: #0a002e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Font;">has now usurped Egypt and South Africa
as Africa’s largest source of renewables capacity, with total renewable energy
capacity in the country jumping from 2,307MW in 2015 to 4,188 MW in 2016, more
than 10% of the continents total generation capacity of 38GW. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Edies</i> noted that is<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>it is<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> ‘now gearing up to
become the wind power capital of Africa, with its second </i></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">Growth
and Transformation Plan</span></i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #0a002e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Font;">,
a five-year strategy to reduce poverty and spur national development – pursuing
an increase of wind energy output from 324MW in 2015 to more than 17GW by
2020’.</span></i><span style="color: #0a002e; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.edie.net/news/10/Global-renewable-energy-revolution-2016-in-charts">www.edie.net/news/10/Global-renewable-energy-revolution-2016-in-charts</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Data from <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2017.pdf">http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2017.pdf</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Font; mso-themecolor: text1;">The risk with development programmes is that
they will involve ‘top down’ mega schemes, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">requiring
large external funding sources, and leading to major local impacts but little
local participation or benefit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By
contrasts, smaller scale low impact renewable projects, for example using solar
or wind energy, can be locally owned and controlled are are much less likely to
be opposed. Indeed, they are likely to welcomed and promoted locally, hopefully
then providing bases for local enterprises and local economic and employment
gains. That fits in well with the UN’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sustainable
Energy for All</i> programme, which aims to increase access to energy,
renewables especially, at the local level, in Africa and elsewhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.se4all.org/">http://www.se4all.org/</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Localisation, whether led via communities or
local municipal authorities, can certainly work. That is a lesson learnt from
the EU experience with local ownership and local council <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>energy projects,
in Germany especially, and is also now being demonstrated in the USA, with local
energy co-op and municipal projects catching on- and, as in Germany,
challenging the utilities: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/articles/2016/12/16/local-utilities-have-lost-local-control.html">http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/articles/2016/12/16/local-utilities-have-lost-local-control.html</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">And
also see: </span><span style="color: #213eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.shareable.net/blog/how-electricity-cooperatives-in-the-us-are-paving-the-way-for-a-renewable-future">http://www.shareable.net/blog/how-electricity-cooperatives-in-the-us-are-paving-the-way-for-a-renewable-future</a></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Back in the UK, there are some good local community projects and
networks, and some support from the government and OFGEM: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.decentralized-energy.com/articles/2017/02/local-energy-by-and-for-the-community.html">http://www.decentralized-energy.com/articles/2017/02/local-energy-by-and-for-the-community.html</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: SegoeUI; mso-themecolor: text1;">And also, crucially, from local councils: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.nuclearpolicy.info/news/nfla-detailed-report-30-examples-councils-delivering-decentralised-local-energy-revolution/">http://www.nuclearpolicy.info/news/nfla-detailed-report-30-examples-councils-delivering-decentralised-local-energy-revolution/</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: SegoeUI; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">But there is still a way to go to
rival Germany and Denmark!</span></div>
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Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;">*The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">European
Federation of Renewable Energy Cooperatives</i> represents 1,240 initiatives
and 650, 000 citizens. Its members have jointly invested €2 bn in 1GW of
renewable energy projects, with </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">a </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;">combined annual</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;">turnover of up to € 950m: </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://rescoop.eu/">https://rescoop.eu/</a></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-4973174839047233042017-08-01T05:24:00.001-07:002017-08-01T05:33:20.480-07:00Nuclear power- time to give up?<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">There is talk again of expanding nuclear power globally, with the World
Nuclear Association looking to </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-themecolor: text1;">an extra 1000 GW
of capacity globally by 2050</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">. This is nothing new. In the past there have been plans
for global programmes of nuclear roll out, as in the 1950s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Atoms for Peace</i> initiative backed by the USA. More recently, in the
2000s, President George W. Bush promoted a </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) under which the US
(and maybe others) would help to service civil nuclear developments globally,
including possibly with fuel supply and waste processing.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">In one variant
of this approach, the US or other vendors might install reactors, possibly
Small Modular Reactors, in developing countries, to be run on a franchise
basis, the reactor modules being leased, and the fuel /waste being controlled,
by the vendor. For example, the US might repatriate the spent fuel capsules and
reprocess the spent fuel to extract plutonium for use it is own reactors.
Certainly at one time there was talk of SMRs being rolled out across the
developing world, with micro projects being seen as well suited to countries
without well developed grids. Echoing the rhetoric of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Atoms for Peace</i></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> initiative, at one point US Energy Secretary
Samuel Bodman claimed that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘GNEP brings
the promise of virtually limitless energy to emerging economies around the
globe’</i>: </span><u><span style="color: #2850fd; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">http://energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-new-nuclear-initiative<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">However, given
the changed security climate after the 9/11 terrorists attacks on the USA, and
increased concerns about the risks of proliferation of nuclear weapons
material, GNEP seems subsequently to have been sidelined. The GNEP programme
did not prosper under President Obama. Instead there has been an expansion of
more conventional commercial approaches. For example, France, Russia, Japan,
China and South Korea are seeking to export their nuclear technology around the
world.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">There is certainly no shortage of promotion
of nuclear expansion, with some exponents clearly still projecting confident
views based on allegedly new technologies like SMRs. In direct opposition,
renewable energy lobbyist argue that nuclear is a distraction which cannot help
much to limit climate change, whereas, despite claims to the contrary,
renewables can:</span><u><span style="color: #4243ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia;">
http://thebulletin.org/commentary/nuclear-distraction</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">With renewables now
supplying around 25% of global electricity and expanding fast, with costs
falling rapidly, while nuclear seems stuck at 11%, with costs rising, their
case is strong. Nuclear power has certainly not lived up to the perhaps
unrealistic expectations raised in the early days, with for example, US </span><span style="color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Times;">Atomic
Energy Commission Chairman Lewis Strauss, in a 1954 address to science writers,
claiming that <i>‘it is not too much to
expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap
to meter’</i>: </span><u><span style="color: #253ffd; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1613/ML16131A120.pdf
</span></u><span style="color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Times;">He was not specific about
whether that was via fission of fusion, but it is clear that, either way, he
has been proven wrong.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #1b1b1b; font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">In terms of technology,
the substantial and long running efforts of many highly qualified and motivated
people notwithstanding, while there have been some notable successes and
reactor systems which have gone on to provide many years of relatively reliable
service, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Times;">there have also been some major disasters with commercial projects and
repeated technological failures as new ideas were explored. One result has been
a loss of faith in nuclear technology amongst increasing numbers of people. As
might be expected, that includes most environmentalists.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0in;">Their
objections often go beyond just concerns about environmental impacts and
safety, important though they are: the basic technological trajectory is seen
as flawed, with nuclear power being viewed as an unreliable way to respond to
climate change. The environmentalist criticism also extends to the more
specific technological development issues covered in this text. For example,
leading UK environmentalist, Jonathon Porritt, has commented that ‘<i>t</i></span><i style="text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 12.0pt;">he consistent history of innovation
in the nuclear industry is one of periodic spasms of enthusiasm for putative
breakthrough technologies, leading to the commitment of untold billions of
investment dollars, followed by a slow, unfolding story of disappointment
caused by intractable design and cost issues. Purely from an innovation
perspective, it’s hard to imagine a sorrier, costlier and more self-indulgent
story of serial failure.’</span></i><i style="text-indent: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Times;"> </span></i><u style="text-indent: 0in;"><span style="color: #253ffd; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt;">http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-2015-.html</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">That may be put a little
aggressively, but a widely shared view is that the nuclear lobby is forever
offering ‘jam tomorrow, but never today’, as the late Lord (Walter) Marshall,
one- time head of the UK Atomic Energy Authority, once wryly admitted in the context
of hoped-for cost reductions, adding: <i>‘The
British Public have never had the cheap electricity that we have always
promised from nuclear power’</i>:</span><u><span style="color: #253ffd; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia;">
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=1987-10-30a.585.1 </span></u><span style="font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times;">That
seems to have been a general pattern: the next reactor system will be better,
cheaper, safer! After 70 years or so of development, regular assertions like
that begin to ring a little hollow. It
remains to be seen whether the next iteration will do any better. On past
performance, it is hard to be optimistic.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 5.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Times;">Some countries will
continue to press ahead with, and rely on, nuclear power, as a minority (30
countries out of the 196 global total) do at present, but it is likely that
most will not want to go down this route and more that have already done so
will back off.</span><span style="font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times;">Some would see that as
tragedy, given the huge effort that has been put into nuclear power development
over the years.</span><span style="font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times;">It would certainly be
painful to admit failure. But there would be some useful spin off, both
technologically (there is some expertise overlap with other energy options) and
policy-wise. For example, the long tortuous history of nuclear power may
provide a useful warning for those of us that hope and believe that renewables
can do much better. Technological innovation is not easy and we can expect
similar up and downs, though hopefully with fewer major disasters and more
technical and economic success. There is a way to go, but, along with energy
saving, that does seem likely to be a more productive route forward.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">The
above is extracted from the new book ‘Nuclear Power: past, present and future’,
which looks at the early days of nuclear power and how some of the ideas that
emerged then are being re-explored as Generation IV:</span><span style="font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 11pt;"><a href="http://bit.ly/2pIIX9Q"><span style="color: #420178; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">http://bit.ly/2pIIX9Q</span></a></span><span style="font-family: Times;"> It
may open up what could be a useful debate on how to ‘de-nuclearise’ e.g. how
can existing nuclear workforces be transferred, perhaps with retraining, to
find productive roles in the new energy system.
It shouldn’t be hard finding them jobs: for example, renewables now
employ over 7 times more people in the USA in electric power generation than
nuclear and they are growing there, as elsewhere. </span><span style="font-family: Times;">The US solar workforce increased by 25% in 2016,
while wind employment increased by 32%. </span><u><span style="color: #1639ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt;">www.ecowatch.com/solar-job-growth-2197574131.html</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">For a very different view see
‘Making Sense of Nuclear’. This new report recycles the familiar pro-nuclear
case under the guise of looking at ‘what’s new’. Not much actually- its the
same old story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">It hasn’t been as bad as
you think, and anyway new nuclear will be cheaper and safer:</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #2e38ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">http://senseaboutscience.org/activities/making-sense-of-nuclear/<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">On its backer, ‘Sense about
science’, see this:</span><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></u><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #2e38ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jan/05/sense-about-science-celebrity-observations</span></u><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #2e38ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-47680420809133028982017-07-01T06:03:00.003-07:002017-07-01T06:11:08.279-07:00US '100% renewable by 2050' scenario 'unreliable'<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">In 2015, Stanford University Prof.
Mark Jacobson and his colleagues, in a paper in the <i>Proceedings of the
National Academy of</i> Sciences,</span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"> </span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">argued that between 2050 and 2055, the United States could be entirely
powered by ‘clean’ energy sources (wind, solar and water power) and <i>‘no
natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed.’</i></span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"> </span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15060">http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15060</a></span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">However, a group of 21 researchers
have now published a study in the same journal arguing that the work<i> ‘used
invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and
inadequately supported assumptions’. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">They say that<i> ‘The study’s
numerous shortcomings and errors render it unreliable as a guide about the
likely cost, technical reliability, or feasibility of a 100% wind, solar, and
hydroelectric power system. It is one thing to explore the potential use of
technologies in a clearly caveated hypothetical analysis; it is quite another
to claim that a model using these technologies at an unprecedented scale conclusively
shows the feasibility and reliability of the modeled energy system implemented
by midcentury.’</i></span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Crucially they say it <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘does
not provide credible evidence for rejecting the conclusions of previous
analyses that point to the benefits of considering a broad portfolio of energy
system options. A policy prescription that overpromises on the benefits of
relying on a narrower portfolio of technologies options could be
counterproductive, seriously impeding the move to a cost-effective decarbonized
energy system’. </i></span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1610381114.short?rss=1">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1610381114.short?rss=1</a></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">The authors of the critique include </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1062; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Dr
Ken Caldeira, who, in 2103, along with others, famously wrote an open letter to
environmentalist asking them to back nuclear power- an option Jacobson et al
treat with distain. The authors of the critique say that the inclusion of
nuclear and CCS, as well as biomass/BECCS (which Jacobson et al also avoid),
alongside renewables, would allow US power to be 80% carbon free. Jacobson has
replied to the critique which he says is ‘demonstrably false’ and ‘riddled with
errors’ e.g. nuclear & CCS wouldn’t help balance variable renewables and
would push up costs. He also sees it as too focused on carbon saving. His approach
was broader, e.g. also looking at air pollution health impacts, energy security
and nuclear risks: </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/pnas-jacobson-renewable-energy-2444465393.html">http://www.ecowatch.com/pnas-jacobson-renewable-energy-2444465393.html</a><span style="color: #3834ff;"> </span><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1708069114.extract">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1708069114.extract</a></span><u><o:p></o:p></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1062; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">The debate continues:
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/19/a-bitter-scientific-debate-just-erupted-over-the-future-of-the-u-s-electric-grid/">http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/19/a-bitter-scientific-debate-just-erupted-over-the-future-of-the-u-s-electric-grid/</a>
and </span><span style="color: #3834ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/energy-environment/renewable-energy-national-academy-matt-jacobson.html" style="text-decoration: underline;">http://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/energy-environment/renewable-energy-national-academy-matt-jacobson.html</a> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1062; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">It is not just an
academic debate; it touches key strategic issues for the US and the rest of us. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Jacobson’s team had also earlier developed a global version, published in
Energy Policy, and more recently, with a team of 27 or so, has been working on
an upgraded version covering 139 countries in detail, with variable supply and
demand balancing carefully addressed :</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf">http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf</a></span><span style="font-family: "times";"> These 100% scenarios suggest that there is no need
for nuclear or carbon storage fixes- there are sufficient renewables of various
types to supply all global energy needs - and soon. Given that Jacobson
excludes (most) biomass, that is certainly provocative. Most other ‘high
renewables’ global and national scenarios include biomass and many of them only
look to 80-90% renewable <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">electricity</i> contributions
by 2050.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Jacobson’s work and
some of the other earlier studies like that by WWF, in effect set the benchmark
high and the studies that have followed do seem to be gradually filling out the
expectations. For example, in a joint report with the IEA, which says ‘near
70%’ may be possible, IRENA looks to renewables supplying 82% of global
electricity by 2050:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=3828">http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=3828</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Indeed, some have now gone
even further.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland,
has produced very ambitious EU and NE Asian studies of renewable potentials,
with hourly balancing and supergrid links: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/313403782_A_low-cost_Power_System_for_Europe_based_on_Renewable_Electricity">http://www.researchgate.net/publication/313403782_A_low-cost_Power_System_for_Europe_based_on_Renewable_Electricity</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">and </span><span style="color: #284fff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/280098413_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_Renewable_energy_mix_and_economics">http://www.researchgate.net/publication/280098413_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_Renewable_energy_mix_and_economics</a></span></u><span style="color: #284fff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-themecolor: text1;">And it says 100% of power <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">by 2030</i> globally is technically viable
and affordable.</span><span style="color: #0933ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #0933ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2016/11/global-energy-model-solely-reliant-on-renewables-realistically-simulated/">https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2016/11/global-energy-model-solely-reliant-on-renewables-realistically-simulated/</a></span></u><u><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">100% by 2030 would certainly be pushing it!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And their analysis has attracted some criticism- see the initial links
to the critiques by Energy Matters in this riposte from LUT: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://euanmearns.com/the-lappeenranta-renewable-energy-model-is-it-realistic-lappeenranta-responds/">http://euanmearns.com/the-lappeenranta-renewable-energy-model-is-it-realistic-lappeenranta-responds/</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">The detailed technical debate over
whether the numbers add up or not will no doubt continue, and is valuable, but
to some extent it misses the strategic point. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What has been achieved is that the debate is
no longer couched in terms of whether renewable can make contribution or not,
but on the scale of that contribution. Now we are debating whether it will or
should be near 70% of global power (IEA) or above 80% (IRENA) by 2050. Or even
more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Time was when it was common for renewables to be almost totally
dismissed and trivial, irrelevant and foolish. Even now we are treated to the
selected use of data to minimise their significance. Thus the new BP World
Energy Outlook says renewables, excluding hydro, only supplied under 4% of energy
globally in 2016. That figure is for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">primary
energy</i>, which BP calculates in terms of the tonnes of oil that would have
be burnt in a power plant to give the same energy output, even if it’s actually
wind or solar generated energy being used. So, for comparisons sake, t</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">hey say
the raw plant output data is</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘converted on the basis of thermal
equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power
station’</i>. </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf">http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf</a></span><span style="color: #0957ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times";">However, that’s an unfair
comparison: unlike fossil or nuclear-fired steam-raising plants, wind and solar
plants don’t suffer from 62% thermodynamic energy conversion losses. It’s also
not a very useful comparison- what matters for these systems is the energy delivered
to users. On that basis, REN 21 calculates that renewables, excluding hydro, accounted
for around 6.6% of final energy uses in 2015, or 19.3% including hydro. </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">While
nuclear comes out at 2.3%: </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2017/">http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2017/</a></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">You can play with
the figures in other ways too</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";">REN21
says that renewables, including hydro, supplied 24.5% of global <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">electricity</i> in 2016, with wind supplying
4%. But reverting to the use of primary energy, Matt Ridley manages to render the
wind statistic as in effect <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">zero</i>, ‘to
the nearest whole number’, since the IEA say it was 0.46% of total energy in
2014!</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<u><span style="color: #0957ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/wind-turbines-are-neither-clean-nor-green-and-they-provide-zero-global-energy">http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/wind-turbines-are-neither-clean-nor-green-and-they-provide-zero-global-energy</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Leaving these tiresome number
games aside, there are some more important issues. Renewables like wind and
solar deliver <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">variable</i> outputs, so
that has to be taken into account. Sadly, that too can lead to some confusion,
willful or otherwise. Those hostile to renewables sometimes say the backup
needed will be prohibitively expensive. But the most recent analysis has put
the extra cost at around 10% for moderate renewable contributions. And that
ignores the possible cash and health cost savings from not using fossil
fuel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As IRENA has commented </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #0e0e0e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Knowledge-Regular;">‘</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times";">reducing the impact on human health and
mitigating climate change would save between two- and six- times more than the
costs of decarbonisation’.</span></i><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #133fff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=3828">http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=3828</a></span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">Scenarios are helpful to harden up estimates
like that, but the overall direction of travel should be clear- with renewables
playing a central role.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Within that
there are choices to be made- do we include biomass. Large hydro? Do we focus
on small scale systems or accept some large systems?</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Scenarios can help assess the likely energy
system impacts of these and other options, and may also be used to identify the
scale of any wider impacts, but in the end it’s a matter of strategic choice
based on assessments of likely costs and benefits, risks and obstacles. A
system based on a wide range of renewables of various scales and types seems likely
to be more robust and sustainable than one based mainly on large probably
costly and possibly inflexible nuclear plants coupled perhaps with CCS as a fix
for continued interim fossil fuel use, and it may be possible to model that to
see if it is true. But in reality, while scenarios and debates over them can
help, if done without too much rancor, we still have to make decisions based on
future outcomes which can’t be fully modeled.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-81082067464012476602017-06-01T02:40:00.002-07:002017-06-01T02:46:28.493-07:00Election Time: Green energy promises<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "times";">In
its election manifesto, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Labour</b> says
it will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘ensure that 60 per cent of the
UK’s energy comes from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030’.</i> That’s in
line with the scenario it produced last year, which talked of <span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">getting 65% of UK <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">electricity</i> from renewables by 2030, </span></span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">with<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>47GW of offshore
wind, 21GW of onshore wind (up from around 5GW and 10GW at present
respectively) and 25GW of PV solar (up from 12GW now): </span><a href="http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2016/10/08/labours-65-renewables-by-2030-plan/"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2016/10/08/labours-65-renewables-by-2030-plan/</span></a><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">In parallel, Labour had shown strong
interest in the various <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">green gas </i>options
for heating: </span><a href="http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2016/09/03/labours-green-gas-push/"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2016/09/03/labours-green-gas-push/</span></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">60% of all <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">energy</i> (if that’s what they really
meant) is however a significant goal, even if maybe 10% would come from
existing and planned nuclear, which presumably it sees as being included in the
‘zero carbon’ category- although in reality, given the energy and carbon debt
associated with fissile fuel production, it isn’t actually zero carbon. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">However, the
commitment to nuclear (and to Euratom!), although there, is a little fudged. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the Manifesto says <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">nuclear will continue
to be part of the energy supply’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">, and that </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">‘</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">we will support further
nuclear projects and protect nuclear workers’ jobs</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: MingLiU; mso-fareast-font-family: MingLiU;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">and
pensions,’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;"> it goes on: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘There are
considerable opportunities for nuclear power and decommissioning both
internationally and domestically.’</i> Is the implication that this is where
the job security for nuclear workers will be found- not in new nuclear
generation? It seems not since, separately, </span><span style="color: #535353; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;">Jeremy Corbyn said that </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-themecolor: text1;">‘Labour supports nuclear power as an
important part of a low carbon energy mix and would continue to support the
construction of Hinkley C’</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-themecolor: text1;">: </span><a href="http://www.ecns.cn/2017/05-22/258487.shtml"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.ecns.cn/2017/05-22/258487.shtml</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">and
it also backed Wylfa in Wales:</span><span style="color: #4240ff; font-family: "times";">
</span><a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/labour-pledges-support-new-nuclear-13068863"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/labour-pledges-support-new-nuclear-13068863</span></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">As for other energy workers, it notes that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘The low-carbon economy is one of the UK’s
fastest-growing sectors, creating jobs and providing investment across each
region.</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: MingLiU; mso-fareast-font-family: MingLiU;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">It employed an estimated 447,000 employees in the UK in 2015 and saw
over £77 billion in turnover. With backing from a Labour government, these
sectors can secure crucial shares of global export markets’. </span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">The 447,000 figure
seems to include nuclear workers, but recent ONS data put nuclear related employment
at just 5.3% of total UK low carbon energy employment, compared to around 20%
in renewables, most of the rest being in energy efficiency: </span><a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2015results"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2015results</span></a><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">In terms of fossil energy, Labour says
it will<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> ‘ban fracking because it would
lock us into an energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels, long after the
point in 2030 when the Committee on Climate Change says gas in the UK must
sharply decline’, </i>but it will support emerging technologies such as carbon
capture and storage, since they can <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘help
to smooth the transition to cleaner fuels and to protect existing jobs as part
of the future energy mix’. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">However, this transition does not seem
to be total<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>it promises to<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> ‘safeguard the offshore oil and gas industry, we will provide a
strategy focused on protecting vital North Sea assets, and the jobs and skills
that depend on them.’</i></span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">Although
it does add ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We are committed to
renewable energy projects, including tidal lagoons, which can help create manufacturing
and energy jobs as well as contributing to climate- change commitments’. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">Maybe it is suggesting that this is
where some offshore workers will be redeployed in time – though it could also
have highlighted offshore wind and tidal stream and wave projects as possible
destination. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">There will also be a lot of employment
in energy efficiency in all sectors e.g. Labour says it will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘insulate four million homes as an
infrastructure priority to help those who suffer in cold homes each winter.
This will cut emissions, improve health, save on bills, and reduce fuel poverty
and winter deaths’. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">Social and economic issues are clearly to the fore, with plans
for radical changes in the management and structure of the energy system. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Labour says it will seek to </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">‘regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of
operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised
energy system’.</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">Specifically, it looks
to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘the creation </i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">of publicly owned, locally
accountable energy companies and co-operatives to rival existing private energy
suppliers, with at least one if every region</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">’</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;">,</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">and to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘l</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">egislating to permit publicly owned
local companies to purchase the regional grid infrastructure, and to ensure
that national and regional grid infrastructure is brought into public ownership
over time</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">’</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">. </span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">With an emergency price cap in the meantime<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Times;">Overall then, nuclear apart, a quite
radical programme, funded, along with the rest of its £48.6bn programme, mainly
by increased taxation on the 5% of the highest earners and by raised
corporation tax: </span><a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.labour.org.uk/index.php/manifesto2017</span></a><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">Its interesting to compare it with the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Green Party</b> manifesto. That says ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We will ensure</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">that
all new investment in energy is</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">directed
towards clean, renewable</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">energy, and a
smarter, networked grid,</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">with
battery-storage, demand-side</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">measures, and
interconnection</span></span></i><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We will</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">introduce a ban on fracking,</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">phase-out the £6bn-a-year fossil</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">fuel subsidies, bring forward the</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">coal phase-out date to 2023 (at</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">the latest), divest public funds</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">from the fossil fuel industry, and</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">ensure a just transition for those</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">communities dependent on fossil</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">fuel jobs. We will cancel</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">the
contracts for Hinkley Point C</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">(saving
£37bn), and scrap plans</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">for all new nuclear
power stations,</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">instead investing in
renewable</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">energy, a flexible grid, and</span><span style="color: #161c2e;"> </span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">interconnection
to Europe’.</span></i></div>
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<span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">So some similarities, but no fudges on nuclear or fossil fuel,
and a strong commitment to specific renewables. It will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘end the effective ban</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">on-onshore
wind</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">– the
cheapest</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">form of new electricity generation– and introducing</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">new support
for</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">onshore
wind and</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">solar-photovoltaics</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">;<span style="color: #161c2e;"> scaling up</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">investment in offshore wind</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">and</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">marine renewables</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">; significant</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">investment in vehicle electrification</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">and charging
infrastructure; and a</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">comprehensive plan to decarbonize</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">heat,
including pilot residential and</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">commercial projects’. </span></i><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">There will also be</span><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1;"> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">a
national</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">programme of insulation and</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1;">
</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">retrofitting</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">to make
every home</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font1;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">warm – bringing two million people</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">out of fuel poverty, insulating</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">nine million homes, and creating</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">hundreds of thousands of jobs’. </span></span></i><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">So a bigger
scheme than Labour’s.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font4; mso-themecolor: text1;">In terms of structural changes, it will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5; mso-themecolor: text1;">end </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">the monopoly
of the Big Six</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">by building democratic, locally</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">owned
alternatives - reaching at</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">least
42 gigawatts by 2025. We</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">will require grid operators to give</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">priority
access to community</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">energy
projects,</span> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">and pioneer
a</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">new
Community Energy Tool Kit</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;">to</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">empower local communities</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #161c2e; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;">to create energy and municipal</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font5;"> <span style="color: #161c2e;">heating projects in every town</span> <span style="color: #161c2e;">and city’.</span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #53b136; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font4;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/348030655/Green-Party-Environment-Manifesto#from_embed"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.scribd.com/document/348030655/Green-Party-Environment-Manifesto
- from_embed</span></a><span style="color: #1237ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2; mso-themecolor: text1;">All very different from <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">UKIP</b>- which backs nuclear and fracking and wants to repeal the
Climate Change Act and exit the Paris climate accord! </span><a href="http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2017"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.ukip.org/manifesto2017</span></a><span style="color: #2c3dff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2; mso-themecolor: text1;">The <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Conservative</b>s, being the sitting tenants, had the advantage of
being able to point to the programme they had backed, with renewables now at 34GW-
supplying 25% of UK power. But that was much reliant on the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Lib Dems</b> in the coalition earlier – and
the Lib Dems clearly now want to continue with more: 60% of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">electricity</i> by 2030. Like Labour, they
oppose fracking and back nuclear - though it has to be unsubsidised. Which seems
impossible!</span><u><span style="color: #304cff; font-family: "times";"> </span></u><a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/environment"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.libdems.org.uk/environment</span></a><u><span style="color: #304cff; font-family: "times";"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2; mso-themecolor: text1;">But that doesn’t seem to worry the Tories,
although excessive energy costs have ostensibly been the reason for the cuts in
support for renewables, although their proposed price cap on energy got mixed
reactions: </span><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/08/unfair-energy-companies-raise-prices-37pc-theresa-may-can-bring/"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/08/unfair-energy-companies-raise-prices-37pc-theresa-may-can-bring/</span></a><span style="font-family: "times";"> <span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">and</span></span><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></u><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/14/tory-price-caps-wouldnt-need-cut-energy-efficiency-schemes"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/14/tory-price-caps-wouldnt-need-cut-energy-efficiency-schemes</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Also: </span><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39858948"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39858948</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> It’s manifesto
softened this commitment and promised a review of energy costs, but with
fracking backed and onshore wind still opposed: </span><u><span style="color: #4240ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.conservatives.com/manifesto</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: font2; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Meantime, while the Big 6 energy utilities dug in against
the proposed price cap, independent <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Pure
Planet</b> offered a new allegedly100% low-cost renewable deal, in effect sidestepping
them and the cap: </span><a href="https://purepla.net/"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">https://purepla.net/</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">The Sun liked it!</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><a href="http://www.thesun.co.uk/money/3515054/new-challenger-energy-firm-launches-promising-to-undercut-the-big-six-by-20/"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.thesun.co.uk/money/3515054/new-challenger-energy-firm-launches-promising-to-undercut-the-big-six-by-20/</span></a><span style="color: #1237ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">The existing independents,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Ecotricity and Good Energy, charge more, although
they invest in new capacity. But one way or another, maybe this is what might
emerge under the more open schemes proposed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the
Greens. Though will they get the chance? Or will only the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">SNP</b> be able to push their radical plans- which includes a 1GW
target </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times";">for community and
locally-owned energy by 2020, and 2 GW by 2030, within their overall ‘50%
renewable energy by 2030’ draft plan for Scotland.</span><span style="color: #1237ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00513466.pdf"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00513466.pdf</span></a><span style="color: #1237ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">*</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Interestingly, the Tory Manifesto ignored
nuclear. That led to this speculative piece: </span><a href="http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988965/conservative_election_manifesto_signals_the_end_of_new_nuclear_power.html"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988965/conservative_election_manifesto_signals_the_end_of_new_nuclear_power.html</span></a><span style="color: #4240ff; font-family: "times";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; tab-stops: 11.0pt .5in; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-33495502288500324632017-05-01T08:32:00.000-07:002017-05-01T08:33:43.378-07:00Back to the future: old nukes for new<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">In
1965, </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Fred Lee, the UK’s then Minister
of Power, famously told the House of Commons that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">'we have hit the jackpot this time,'</i> with the Advanced Gas-cooled
Reactor (AGR). That was maybe a reference back to an earlier episode, when
expansive claims were made that the ZETA nuclear fusion test plant heralded a
global breakthrough- it didn’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately,
things also went very wrong as the AGR programme unfolded. The first station, on
the south Kent coast, was Dungeness B. </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">It was </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ordered in 1965, but did not start up
until 1982, over 17 years later, by which time its cost had reached more than
five times the initial estimate, and its output had been scaled down by over 20%.
In 1985, two decades after the original order, the second reactor at the
station had only just started up. Atomic Power Constructions, the company that
won the Dungeness B contract in 1965, had by 1970 collapsed in total technical,
managerial and financial disarray:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Project
disasters like that might be seen as part of the learning process, though the
UK seems hell bent on a repeat, with EDF’s £24bn Hinkley EPR project, to be
followed perhaps by more, with a variety of new ‘first of kind’ reactors
projects being proposed. As </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Peter </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">Atherton put it in
evidence to a Lords committee:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">‘<i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">we will be building
four different reactor types, with at least five different manufacturers,
simultaneously. That is industrial insanity’. </span></i></span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">While
some nuclear enthusiasts hope that these Generation III reactors, like the EPR
or its rivals, will be successful, there is also pressure to move on to new
technology and so called Generation IV options, including liquid sodium-cooled
fast neutron breeder reactors, helium-cooled high tempertutre reactors and thorium-fuelled molten salt reactors, at various
scales. </span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">As I describe in my new book </span><i style="font-family: Times;">Nuclear Power: Past, Present and Future</i><span style="font-family: "times";">,
many of them are in fact old ideas that were looked at in the early days and
mostly abandoned. There were certainly problems with some of these early
experimental reactors, some of them quite dramatic. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">Examples include the fire at</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;"> the</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; text-decoration: none;">
Simi Valley Sodium Reactor in 1959, and </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">the explosion at the 3MW experimental SL-1
reactor at the US National Reactor Testing Site in Idaho in 1961, which killed
three operators. Better known perhaps was and the core melt down of the Fermi
Breeder reactor near Detroit in 1966. Sodium fires have been a major problem
with many of the subsequent fast neutron <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>reactor projects around the world, for example
in France, Japan and Russia.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">For
good or ill, ideas like this are back on the agenda, albeit in revised forms.
That includes <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the currently much
promoted idea of scaling down to small modular reactors- SMRs. In theory they
can be mass produced, so cutting costs. Not everyone is convinced: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>scaling down doesn’t necessarily reduce
complexity and it’s that that may be the main cost driver.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One cost offsetting option is to locate them
in or near cities so that the waste heat they produce can feed into district
heating networks. But given the safety and security risks, will anyone accept
them in their backyard? And like all nuclear plants, they will produce
dangerous long lived wastes that have to be dealt with.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">Fast neutron breeder reactors can produce new</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">plutonium fuel from otherwise unused uranium 238 and may also be able to
burn up some wastes, as in the Integral Fast Reactor concept and also the
Traveling Wave Reactor variant. Molten Salt Reactors using thorium may be able
to do this without producing plutonium or using liquid metals for cooling. Both
approaches are being promoted, but both have problems, as was found in the
early days. Certainly fast breeder reactors were subsequently mostly sidelined
as expensive and unreliable. And as heightening nuclear weapons proliferation
risks. The US gave up on them in the 1970s, France and the UK in the 1990s.
Japan soldiered on, but has now abandoned its troubled Monju plant. For the
moment it’s mainly Russia that has continued, including with a molten lead
cooled reactor, although India also has a fast reactor programme, linked to its
thorium reactors plans.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">Thorium was used as a fuel for some reactors
in some early experiments and is now being promoted again- there is more of it
available globally than uranium. But there are problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">It isn’t fissile, but neutrons, fast or slow, provided by uranium 235 or
plutonium fission, can convert Thorium 232 into fissile U233. However, on the
way to that, a very radioactive isotope, U232, is produced, which makes working
with the fuel hard. Another isotope, U234 is also produced by neutron
absorption. Ideally, to maximise U233 production, that should be avoided, but
experts are apparently divided on whether this can be done effectively.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">The use of molten
salts may help with some of these problems, perhaps making it easier to play
with the nuclear chemistry and tap off unwanted by-products, but it is far from
proven technically or economically</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">The economics is certainly challenging. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Nuclear plants of any sort
may not be competitive in the emerging electricity market, as renewables get
ever cheaper and their market share expands, but some nuclear options might be
able to compete in the heat and synfuel markets. However, even that is unclear-
renewables may also be able to compete in meeting these end uses, with fewer
side effects. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">Back in the
1950s, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">President Eisenhower launched </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">Atoms for Peace</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
initiative, promising US aid with the world-wide development of bountiful
nuclear energy, and that idea has lingered on. In 2006, under the </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">backed
by President </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">George W Bush</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘GNEP brings the promise of virtually
limitless energy to emerging economies around the globe’</i>.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> After Fukushima and the economic challenges to nuclear
presented by gas and renewables, GNEP was in effect abandoned and we don’t hear
rhetoric like that so much: nuclear is on the defensive, only supplying 11% of
global electricity as against 25% from renewables, with the cost of the later
falling rapidly, while nuclear costs seem to be rising inexorable. Whether the
new Generation of fission technologies will be able to resuscitate it remains
to be seen. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It doesn’t seem a good bet:</span><span style="color: #3348ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6316/1112.1"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6316/1112.1</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt; text-decoration: none;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; text-decoration: none;">And if you still have hopes for fusion, see this:</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #0432ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://thebulletin.org/fusion-reactors-not-what-they%E2%80%99re-cracked-be10699">http://thebulletin.org/fusion-reactors-not-what-they’re-cracked-be10699</a></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">All this and more is covered in my new IOPP<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>book ‘Nuclear Power: Past, Present and
Future’: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-1-6817-4505-3">http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-1-6817-4505-3</a></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">*If you are a real devotee of nuclear history, take a look at this new
long, partisan and somewhat overwhelmingly chaotic video selling thorium molten
salt reactors: </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6mhw-CNxaE" style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6mhw-CNxaE</span></a></div>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-25394834789939318882017-04-01T11:29:00.001-07:002017-04-01T11:31:39.922-07:00The end is near<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">Some say that, almost
whatever we do technically, we are all doomed to damage the planet so much that
civilisation will collapse. Tinkering will not help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A recent NASA funded study by </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-themecolor: text1;">the US National Science Foundation-supported </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">National Socio-Environmental
Synthesis Center</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-themecolor: text1;">, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">said that technical fixes lead to
continued resource consumption: </span><i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt; mso-themecolor: text1;">‘Technological </span></i><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt;">change can raise the efficiency of
resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption
and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the
increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of
resource use.’</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">This is a version of the so-called Jevons
paradox: increased resource-use conversion efficiency cuts the cost of
consumption which therefore can continue to expand, so that resources are
exhausted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Is that really the case?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Renewable energy sources can supply energy
for ever, or at least as long as the sun lasts- they are never used up. However,
building the energy conversion technology does need energy and resources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the specialist materials used in some
of these plants may be scarce, although some can be recycled from earlier
projects or substitutes found. More significantly, the energy needed will
initially have to come from conventional sources. Some say that there won’t be
enough fossil energy to build the replacement system, and that might be the
case if we continue to use most of it for other things. So we might insist that
in future most fossil energy is earmarked just for the renewable expansion
programme. However, gradually, and as fossil availability and/or use declines, renewables
can provide most of the energy for the next phase of renewable expansion, until
a stable state is reached, with renewables supplying all energy and only
marginal maintenance and replacement work<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>then being needed. Some might add nuclear fission to the mix as an
interim option, but the increased amount of energy needed to sustain nuclear as
fissile fuel reserves dwindle may make it a poor choice for this role, quite
apart from the risks. New breeder technology might stretch the fissile reserves
and fusion could open up another possible future, but for the moment at least
that is very speculative. Renewables are only sustainable options we have at
present. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Whatever the mix, how quickly we can reach
the point at which renewables can bootstrap expansion will depend on how
rapidly we want to make the change over, and on what we do about energy use and
wider economic growth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we are aiming
at a steady state, low or zero growth future, then the resource and energy
problems become more tractable. But that may take time. Depending on which
renewables are adopted, there may also be other impacts- for example on land
use and water resources. They may limit what can be done, for example in terms
of using biomass. But in theory a transition could be made, although it will
require careful management and also, arguably, some major social changes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Here is where the NASA-backed analysis
gets quite radical. It suggests that since we can no longer feed endless growth,
in that context, the inequitable use of resources by minorities and elites will
be increasingly provocative. Indeed, in almost Marxian terms, the study suggested
that, </span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt;">‘accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout
society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population,
while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites,
usually at or just above subsistence levels.’ </span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Moreover,<i> </i></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">unless that is challenged ‘</span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt;">the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine
among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society’.</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> That is on top of whatever direct damage in being
done the planet. However, while not indicting exactly who might make this
change, it concludes </span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt;">‘collapse can be avoided and
population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature
is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a
reasonably equitable fashion’</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">It recognises that this will be hard: </span><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-RegIt;">‘While some members of society might raise the alarm that the
system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate
structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their
supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long
sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing.’<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></i><span style="font-family: times;">Does that sound familiar?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="color: #1834ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Ç顡øfic$; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">There are other
views, some of which, rather optimistically look to new technology changing the
growth-consumption link, empowering those previously mostly excluded from
economic progress and heralding a post-capitalism transition:</span><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span></u><u style="text-underline: #0000E9;"><span style="color: #0000e9; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://isa-global-dialogue.net/the-end-of-the-world-the-end-of-capitalism-and-the-start-of-a-new-radical-sociology/</span></u><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">And also</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></b><u><span style="color: #2c2eeb; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/17/postcapitalism-end-of-capitalism-begun<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">While some of this analysis may be overdone
(new technology can also be used by the elites to buttress their control), it
is clear that changes are underway, including in the energy economy, with
self-generation by ‘prosumers’ and grass roots energy co-ops challenging the
market power of some of the conventional corporate energy suppliers and that is
part of a wider rethink about the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">Seventeen years into the century, millennialism,
powered by serious concern about the future, continuing global economic
uncertainties and heightened climate change worries, seems to have finally
arrived, some of this prefigured in Jeremy Leggett’s 2014 </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt;">book
‘The Energy of Nations’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He saw some big
global economic risks ahead, most of them being likely to interact and lead to
another major global financial crash, but this one worse, as the world markets
get hit by energy price shocks due to peak oil, a collapse of the shale gas
boom, a collapse of carbon asset values as climate change hits, plus wider
economic problems due to climate impacts. But he said </span><span style="font-family: "times";">mobilizing renewables and redeploying energy funding
could soften the crash and set us on a road to renaissance.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt;">
Some say peak oil has been delayed, although equally it may have been
accelerated by low market prices, but either way he may be proved right- we are
in for a crisis. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Summary/chapter 1 at: </span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.jeremyleggett.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/The-Energy-of-Nations-thru-ch1.pdf</span></u><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri;">His latest book, ‘Winning the Carbon War’,
brings the story up to date: although gains have been made, the crisis has not
been averted and the battle continues, with Trump being the latest challenge: </span><u><span style="color: #1834ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.jeremyleggett.net/ebook/</span></u></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-themecolor: text1;">Though looking to the future, if IT/AI expands,
longer term, we may all be redundant!</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/20/silicon-assassins-condemn-humans-life-useless-artificial-intelligence"><span style="color: #420178; font-size: 10.0pt;">https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/20/silicon-assassins-condemn-humans-life-useless-artificial-intelligence</span></a></span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: SegoeUI;">Homo Deus included!</span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-66812123373877675452017-03-01T03:56:00.000-08:002017-03-01T03:59:11.532-08:00Why the UK backed nuclear<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
UK government has backed the Hinkley Point C nuclear project and is keen on
several follow ups- maybe 16GWs in all, with perhaps many more to follow. The
Hinkley decision was widely challenged, with even the Economists saying Hinkley
was ‘pointless’: </span><u><span style="color: #2a3cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.economist.com/news/leaders/21703367-britain-should-cancel-its-nuclear-white-elephant-and-spend-billions-making-renewables</span></u><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">. The Telegraphs was
similarly dismissive:</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/15/hinkley-point-will-be-obsolete-before-it-even-starts-but-theresa/"><span style="color: blue; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/15/hinkley-point-will-be-obsolete-before-it-even-starts-but-theresa/</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">So
why is all this happening?</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The National Audit Office said that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘supporting early new nuclear projects could
lead to higher costs in the short-term than continuing to support wind and
solar’</i>. In which case <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘the decision
to proceed with support for nuclear power therefore relies more on strategic
than financial grounds: nuclear power is needed in the supply mix to complement
the intermittent nature of wind and solar’.</i></span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">That last bit is odd - as the NAO admitted, nuclear
is inflexible and can’t balance variable renewables.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #0f35ff; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">www.nao.org.uk/report/nuclear-power-in-the-uk</span></u></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-themecolor: text1;">There must be other explanations. </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">‘</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">We systematically examined
a range of different possible reasons for official UK attachments to nuclear
power’,</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">
says Emily Cox, a co-author of a report from the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Science Policy Research Unit</b> at the University of Sussex, but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘none of these are satisfactory to explain
the intensity of support for nuclear power maintained by a variety of UK
Governments’. </i>Especially since, as the report claims,<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>civil nuclear power was recognised in the Government’s own
detailed analyses to be expensive and otherwise ‘unattractive’ compared to
other low carbon options. There may be other factors, but Cox said that from
their review <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘it seems that pressures to
continue to build nuclear submarines form a crucial missing piece in the
jigsaw’. </i></span><u><span style="color: #0f35ff; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<span style="font-family: "times";">That conclusion seems a little odd. The team
says that to acknowledge this possibility, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘is
not to entertain a conspiracy theory. It can be understood instead, in terms of
more distributed and relational dynamics of power. Building on literatures in
political science, we refer to this as a ‘deep incumbency complex’. Such an
evidently under-visible phenomenon would hold important implications not only
for UK nuclear strategies, but also the wider state of British democracy’.</i> </span><span style="color: #1535ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=2016-16-swps-cox-et-al.pdf&site=25s</span><span style="font-family: "times";"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
report documents strongly-held views in UK defence policy, that
nuclear-propelled submarines form a crucial military capability, with, another co-author
Dr Phil Johnstone noted, ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">strong fears
that without continued commitment to civil nuclear power, the UK would be
unable to sustain the industrial capabilities necessary to build nuclear
submarines.’</i> The report identified many key links between UK submarine and
civil nuclear supply chains.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">According
to the third co author, Professor Andrew Stirling, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘what is remarkable about this pressure for a nuclear bias is that it
is well documented on the military side, yet remains completely unacknowledged
anywhere in official UK energy policy documentation.’</i> Although they did
find one defence policy document that considered the possibility to ‘mask’ some
of the costs of nuclear submarine capabilities behind spending on civil nuclear
power.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">So
it’s not the issue of nuclear <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">weapons </i>as
such that’s driving civil nuclear, as some suggest, so much as the need for
nuclear submarine power units. Well maybe, although that’s a relatively small
industrial activity. But its expansion to help build Small Modular Reactors
(similar in some ways to sub reactors, with Rolls Royce involved with both)
might change that. But that’s still only part of the story: surely the overlap
between the technologies for producing fissile material, and for the use of
this material in nuclear plants, bombs and submarine power units, along with
the perceived need for the retention of the associated expertise, may also play
a role.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">See this earlier analysis:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="color: #0012ff; font-size: 10.0pt; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2530828/bombs_ahoy_why_the_uk_is_desperate_for_nuclear_power.html">www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2530828/bombs_ahoy_why_the_uk_is_desperate_for_nuclear_power.html</a></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">That
covers a lot more people- one way or another, the whole nuclear sector. And it
links in to a wider issue, which arguably has played a larger role, employment
protection. Much has been made of the number of jobs in the nuclear industry
and the role of nuclear expansion for creating more. That has certainly had a
major impact on trade union views, with the TUC and GMB union backing Hinkley: </span><u><span style="color: #2b33e3; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/hinkley-point-good-enws-workers-economy-not-stop</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">It
is interesting, in this context, to look back at the 1980’s when, after a
protracted battle between pro and anti nuclear power unions, in 1986, in the
wake on Chernobyl, the TUC backed a nuclear ‘moratorium and review’ policy. In
the same year, the Labour Party had confirmed its 1985 anti-nuclear stance,
with a two thirds majority for phasing out of civil nuclear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The then quite dominant Transport and General
Workers Union said it was <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘clear and
unambiguous in its position on nuclear power. We support a halt to nuclear
expansion and a safe and planned phase out of nuclear power in this country’. </i>So
what changed?</span><span style="color: #3d6bad; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">The Labour Party had gone into the 1987
national election with a manifesto talking of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘gradually diminishing Britain’s dependence upon nuclear energy’</i>,
but was unable to unseat the Tories, whose subsequent electricity privatisation
and liberalisation programme put the unions on the defensive- they sought to
protect energy jobs across the board. It seems they are still at it! A sub-text
to that is the low level of conviction by most of the unions at that time that
renewables could provide viable alternative employment. In it 1988 Nuclear
Energy Review, the TUC said <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘renewables
are not going to make a big contribution to Britain’s energy supplies over the
next 20 years’. </i>Well it’s taken 28 years but they are now big and growing,
creating jobs.</span><span style="color: #3d6bad; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">But still often blocked by the continued
support for nuclear. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Whatever the reasons for the current
commitment to nuclear, the reality is that its backing by some key unions makes
it harder to challenge: </span><u><span style="color: #3a3dff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-facing-backlash-from-unions-momentum-chair-rachel-garrick-and-bill-esterson-over-hinkley-c-nuclear-plant-opposition_uk_579c874de4b0f42daa4a43c5</span></u><span style="color: #3a3dff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The claim that renewables can
create more<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>jobs may fall on deaf ears.
Economic and safety arguments similarly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We are back where we started in the early 1980s. Then it was the slow
patient grass roots lobbying work of groups like SERA, taking the arguments out
to trade union and Labour Party branches, that eventually changed the mood-
along with Chernobyl! Does all that have to be repeated? Do we have to
challenge every silly assertion made by the likes to GMB all over again? Like
this one: </span><u><span style="color: #0e31ed; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.gmb.org.uk/newsroom/low-wind-days</span></u><span style="color: #0e31ed; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">But also go on the offensive re jobs? Seems
like it. Here’s a start: </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988060/if_its_jobs_they_want_labour_and_the_uni</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: times; font-size: 10pt;">ons_must_back_renewables_not_hinkley_c.html</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">And also the the ‘1 million climate jobs’
booklet produced by the Campaign on Climate Change: </span><span style="color: #1535ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.climate-change-jobs.org</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">For a full account of the twists and turns of
Trade Union and Labour Party policy on nuclear power in the 1980s, see the
series of OU Technology Policy Group reports I produced: TPG Occasional Papers
No. 4 (1981), 14 (1987) and 17 (1988). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">Also, for a much more recent input, see my </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">‘</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Green jobs and the ethics of energy’, in Hersh, M.
(ed) ‘</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: RyrylfTimes-Roman; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Ethical Engineering for International Development and
Environmental Sustainability’ Springer, London:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> <u><span style="color: blue;">http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9781447166177</span></u></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: RyrylfTimes-Roman; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">For a very different
view of UK nuclear history see</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">Simon Taylor’s <b>‘</b></span><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino; mso-themecolor: text1;">The Fall and
Rise of Nuclear Power in Britain’</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">. He sees the governments Chief Scientists, Sir David King and Sir David
MacKay, as having playing key roles in recent developments: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #4243ff; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">www.uit.co.uk/the-fall-and-rise-of-nuclear-power-in-britain</span></u><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-86516753746786855672017-02-01T04:17:00.002-08:002017-02-01T04:23:54.097-08:00Hinkley in La La Land<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘The reactor at Hinkley, as well as being the first of its kind in the
UK, will also be the last of its kind, and any future build will be a new
design. I cannot believe that independent due diligence would give this project
the green light as it stands. The decision has been strongly influenced by
political opportunism and fear of loss of face.’</i> So said pro-nuclear stalwart
Prof. Ian Fells, in the Times</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">19/9/16.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #313131; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Concerns about annoying China, by spurning their offer of £6bn
in inward investment in the project, were certainly there, but so were concerns
about giving China more control over the UK energy system. However former
energy minister Lord Howell said that, rather than worrying about whether China
will be a good nuclear partner, we should worry about EDF: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘The real risks are that EDF's financial affairs are wobbly, its
supplier's affairs are wobbly, the design has never yet worked anywhere, it's a
design that's unproven. And we are going to be really in unknown territory as
we build this thing.’</i></span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><u><span style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.greenpeace.org.uk/media/press-releases/public-support-hinkley-new-low-20160913</span></u><span style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><u><span style="color: #1638ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-37320034</span></u> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">There are of course protections in case of
financial problems, including contract cut off deadlines, and under the
renegotiated agreement, should it go bust, </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #464646; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;">‘the
government will be able to prevent the sale of EDF’s controlling stake prior to
the completion of construction’.</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #464646; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;">Moreover, the legal framework means the government can intervene
in the sale of EDF's stake once (if!) Hinkley is operational.</span><span style="color: #1638ff; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">There’s still the Austrian legal objection to be heard and the results
of the forging quality tests on Areva’s steel containment, but for now EDF is
obviously happy. So its next EPR project, at Sizewell, may soon be up for
consideration, along with the other UK projects- Wyfa and Olbury (Hitachi
ABWR), Moorside (Westinghouse AP1000) & Bradwell (a Chinese reactor). We
will be hearing more about that: </span><u><span style="color: #3640ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/china-to-submit-homegrown-nuclear-reactor-design-for-u-k-review</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-themecolor: text1;">Meanwhile though, the Guardian’s nuclear
evangelist George Monbiot, who opposed Hinkley as an expensive distraction,
sang the praises of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">small modular reactors that use
nuclear waste as fuel’</span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">the integral fast reactor</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-themecolor: text1;"> variant <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘could
supply all the UK’s energy needs for 500 years by consuming the nuclear waste
stockpile.’</i></span><u><span style="color: #1638ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/15/nuclear-power-no-hinkley-point-yes-atomic-energy</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">A</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">bit</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">fantastical-</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">with many cost,
safety and security unknowns and risks. Even the pro nuclear ETI said that SMRs
wont be available, at best, until 2030: </span><u style="text-underline: #0000E9;"><span style="color: #0000e9; font-family: "times"; font-size: x-small; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">www.eti.co.uk/small-modular-reactors-could-be-operating-in-the-uk-by-2030-according-to-a-new-eti-report/</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>And for</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">now, dazzled by the
promise of jobs, the</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">TUC and </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">GMB</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">along with the
government,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">seem delighted to build conventional large plants,
starting with Hinkley! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<u><span style="color: #2b33e3; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/hinkley-point-good-enws-workers-economy-not-stop</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">I will be coming back to the union’s position in my next post, but it
does seem very short sighted. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">Renewables
can also create jobs and they are much faster to deploy, in weeks or months for
PV and wind, not up to a decade, as with large nuclear projects. And, quite</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">apart</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">from the unique safety,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">security</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">and waste management</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">worries with nuclear, it’s expensive. Indeed,
as even the government now admits, more expensive than some renewables.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">In its three
page ‘Value for Money’ assessment in relation to the Hinkley project, the
government says its £</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">92.50/MWh strike price is ‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">above
the comparable cost range of large-scale solar Photovoltaics (PV) (£65-92/MWh)
and onshore wind (£49-90/MWh)’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>However, it claims that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘in
order for large-scale solar and onshore wind to produce the same amount of
electricity provided by HPC, there would be significant upgrades to the grid
required (such as connection and planning costs) as well as increased costs to
keep the system in balance’.</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Well
yes, balancing might add 10-15% to the cost, on the basis of CCC estimates by
Imperial College:</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.5pt;"> </span></i><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/system-integration-costs-for-alternative-low-carbon-generation-technologies-policy-implications/"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">www.theccc.org.uk/publication/system-integration-costs-for-alternative-low-carbon-generation-technologies-policy-implications/</span></a></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Moreover,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">grids and balancing have
to be upgraded anyway since we plan to use more renewables, offshore wind
especially, even with Hinkley on line. </span><span style="font-family: "times";">The
government says that Hinkley comes out at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">towards the bottom of the comparable cost range of offshore wind
(£81-132/MWh)’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> but that may now be dated- offshore projects are going ahead for 2020 at
~ £54/MWh off Denmark. Even with grid costs added that would still beat
Hinkley, and who know what offshore wind costs will be by 2025 when Hinkley</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">might</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">start</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">up- 20-30%</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">cost</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">falls</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">have</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">been predicted. </span><span style="color: #1638ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2016/09/13/experts-anticipate-significant-continued-reductions-wind-energy-costs/</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">There could also be
some extra unexpected nuclear costs. The large cost of dealing with nuclear
waste and eventual plant decommissioning (put at £5.9-7.2bn) is meant to be covered
by the CfD strike price,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">with contingency extras added in to the legal agreement.
Insurance cost similarly. But who knows if these provisions will be sufficient-
all previous clean up cost estimates have proved wrong: </span><u><span style="color: #0735ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: x-small; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/30/hinkley-point-c-developers-face-72bn-cleanup-bill-at-end-of-nuclear-plants-</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US; mso-themecolor: text1;">As for fossil fuel
alternatives, t</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">he </span><span style="font-family: "times";">government says that Hinkley
comes out at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">towards the top of the comparable cost range of gas Combined Cycle Gas
Turbines (CCGT) (£47-96/MWh)’ </span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘towards
the bottom of the comparable cost range of first-of-a-kind commercial carbon
capture and storage (£77-249/MWh) for delivery in 2025’. </i>It has dumped CCS
for now, but it is still keen on CCGT, presumably using shale gas, increased
emissions not withstanding.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">
However, perhaps a little deviously, it argues that Hinkley offers extra value
by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">avoiding the
costs of replacing the gas fleet and avoiding the rising carbon costs of gas
generation post-2050’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times";">and also by
unlocking </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">the
option of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘further new nuclear’</i>. But
renewables could avoid all of that, arguably at lower cost. Certainly by 2050
and probably by the time Hinkley might run. Or any SMR’s: if, as it seems, the
earliest for them is 2030,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by then
renewables could be clearly dominant, if not before. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #2b33e3; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">That
is clearly not how the government sees it. On Hinkley, it puts the total cost
over its whole 35-year index-linked CfD at £11-21bn (2012 prices, discounted to
2012), although the NAO say there is likely to be a £30bn top up:</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 8pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #0f35ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;">www.nao.org.uk/report/nuclear-power-in-the-uk</span></u><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">. But sticking with the
governments lower figures, the NAO says: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘Our
most realistic projections mean that around £12 from energy bills will go
towards supporting the plant in 2030’. </i>Whereas<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">, </i>if Hinkley <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘is delayed by
three years and offshore wind and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are needed
to fill the gap, it would lead to a £24 annual increase on household
electricity bills on average from 2026 to 2030 (2012 prices). Similarly, if
onshore wind and large- scale solar PV were to fill the gap, consumer bills
would increase annually by £21. Gas plant coming on to fill the gap would see
bills £6 cheaper per year, but this would undermine the UK’s ability to meet
legally binding decarbonisation targets’.</i> </span><u><span style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115303001</span></u><span style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">Greenpeace said </span><i style="color: #262626; font-family: times;">‘The
numbers speak for themselves. In the unlikely event Hinkley is working sometime
in the second half of the next decade, renewable energy will be much cheaper,
yet British consumers will still be forced to pay over the odds for nuclear
power’. </i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">It’s hard not to agree. Though that doesn’t explain why the
government is still pushing for it- something I will look at in my next post in
this series.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";"> </span></div>
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<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: AustinNewsTextWeb-Roman;">The government’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Value for
Money</i> analysis is at: </span><span style="color: #0735ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/556917/3_-_Value_for_Money_Assessment.pdf</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-27345341633318292582017-01-01T07:13:00.001-08:002017-01-01T07:15:22.631-08:00Growth and change: the debate continues<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The environmental case for balanced, low or zero economic growth and a
stable state economy is strong, in terms of reducing impacts from ever-expanding
resource use. However, there are problems. Competitive pressures, one of the
main drivers for growth, are not <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i>
bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The need to compete with rivals in
the market place leads to technical innovation- so as to cut costs. In itself,
cutting costs by reducing resource use and waste, and increasing efficiency and
productivity, are good things, as long as that is achieved by technology
improvement, not by increasing the level of exploitation of labour or the
ecosystem. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if its done just to
expand sales and sustain profits in the face of others trying to do the same,
regardless of real needs and planetary limits, then we are headed for social
and eco-disaster.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times";">In a stable state economy, it would still make sense to improve the
efficiency of resource use so that needs could be met while using less resources
and minimizing impacts. In a <i>Science as
Culture</i> journal paper looking back at the history of Alternative Technology
(AT), Peter Harper talked of </span><span style="font-family: "times";">using efficiency increases<i> ‘to
reduce environmental and other impacts’ </i>and sees this as<i> ‘one working definition of AT, shared with
steady-state or de-growth proposals for modern economies as a whole’. </i>He
contrasts this with the present situation in which he says<i> ‘extra efficiency is invariably used to expand functionality in
congenial but ultimately unnecessary directions.</i>’</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #3b3bff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09505431.2016.1164406 </span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">This
may only be partly true- the main driver at present is surely to sustain and
expand profits and market shares with improved ‘functionality’ only being a
means to that end, and with real needs often not being considered. Under a no-growth ecologically limited needs-based
system, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times";">technological improvement could allow some <i>increase </i>in what is available for sustainable use, qualitatively
and also possibly quantitatively, within the eco-defined limits. That would be
a social and ecological decision, not an economic one, although, unless we want
to impose some form of totally planned and constrained consumer society, with
quota’s and rationing for everything consumed, there may well still be markets
and price differentials to enable people to chose amongst qualitatively
different products and services, within regulatory eco-limits and subject to
fair trading labour protection rules. However, the main driver for innovation
would not be commercial success, it would be environmental success and social
needs and costs, broadly defined. If consumption is not to be micro-managed, that
implies some overall limits, assessment processes and planning frameworks,
operating locally, nationally and globally, on the supply side. We can see
something like this happening in the emerging global agreements on carbon
emissions, although they are fought at every step by those wishing to retain
free global markets and unrestricted growth. Assuming this opposition could be
overcome, could regulation be expanded effectively and equitably to cover
everything? With the best will in the world, regulation can be very bureaucrats
and potentially open to corruption…Can that be avoided? Is there an appetite
for change?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "times";">Optimists look to the rise of new or revived grass-roots political
movements in the West and elsewhere, but the scale of the problem is daunting-
going well beyond just eco-issues and with populist movements as likely to go
to the right as to the progressive left, given how easy it is to promote
simpleminded explanations of what the problems are. We live in troubled times.
But that does mean that change is likely. Let’s hope we can make it for the
good, with the Green movement playing a key role. That’s one thing that does
need to grow. It helps to create a new climate, in all senses. And while there
is so much more to do, we should remember just how far we’ve come e.g. in the
energy policy area. Even if its still mainly about replacing old tech with new
tech, it has cut emissions and the shift in what’s now seen as possible is
dramatic:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="color: #2a3cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">www.mng.org.uk/gh/scenarios.htm </span><span style="font-family: "times";">As is the shift by the bastions of the
old economy, with the <i>Economist</i>
saying</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> <i>‘Britain
should cancel its nuclear white elephant and spend the billions on making
renewables work’.</i></span><span style="color: #2a3cff; font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">Next- can they, and the rest of us,
look to a change in attitudes to growth and a move to a stable state economy? That
debate is a live one: </span><span style="color: #2243ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271506217_Degrowth_A_Vocabulary_for_a_New_Era </span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">and </span><span style="color: #2243ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-4446.12181/full</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">A key element in the debate is the question of how much
lifestyles will have to change Interestingly, in his <i>Science as Culture</i> paper, Peter Harper says that, <i>‘</i></span><i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">for entirely
pragmatic reasons’</span></i><span style="font-family: "times";"> in its Zero Carbon Britain, the Centre of Alternative
Technology <i>‘</i></span><i><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">emphasise technical solutions, and try to avoid the need for lifestyle
changes’.</span></i><span style="font-family: "times";">
He goes on <i>‘There is no doubt that
changes of customary practice will be essential, and that the recent historic
period of rapid growth is over. Nevertheless the reports’ abandonment of
lifestyle change as the key component is a considerable shift. This distances
CAT from the ‘deep green’ parts of the environment movement, who usually cleave
to the doctrine that Small is (always) Beautiful’. </i>He adds<i> ‘For some it is a betrayal of hard-fought
ideals. For others it signifies a welcome return to the real world. Many at CAT
would say it is imply a recognition that we are running out of time. Had the
long slow cultural changes called for in the 1970s taken hold and become
widespread, all could have been achieved with ‘alternative’ systems. But of
course these changes have not spread, and as various global thresholds loom,
the responses have to be more rapid, drastic, infrastructural and
‘one-size-fits-all’,</i> and now <i>‘there
is much more concern for whether new systems can be generalised and applied on
a wider national scale’.</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Harper may have overstated the scale of CAT’s shift: for example, Zero
Carbon Britain did talk about the need for dietary change and a shift from land-intensive
meat production to create more space more biomass, for energy use:</span> <u><span style="color: #0d38ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://zerocarbonbritain.com/en</span></u><span style="color: #0d38ff; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">/ </span><span style="font-family: "times";">But it’s certainly true
that many ‘deep greens’ see social change as much more important and
appropriate than what some portray as just technology fixes. Whereas in his </span><i style="font-family: Times;">Science as Culture</i><span style="font-family: "times";"> paper, Harper
concluded that although small scale projects and social change were important, </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><i>‘it seems unavoidable that ‘high-tech’ must
do the heavy lifting, at least in the short term. Thus two different forms of
socio-technical transition need to run in parallel’. </i>So it's not all low tech and small scale.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">That also seemed to be the conclusion that emerged from the Radical
Technology Revisited (RT 2.0) conference in Bristol in Sept- which looked at CAT’s
Zero Carbon Britain scenario as one way forward. That certainly included a mix
of technology scales. </span><span style="font-family: "times";">So, although just how much large scale high technology is
needed remains unclear, we have moved away from ‘small is (automatically)
beautiful’.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">But then as was pointed out
at RT 2.0, Schumacher didn’t ever say that </span><i style="font-family: Times;">only</i><span style="font-family: "times";">
small was beautiful: it was a question of context.</span></div>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-53107611910773304772016-12-01T05:56:00.001-08:002016-12-01T06:01:48.643-08:00Radical Technology 2.0<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The 40-year on retrospective conference held in Bristol last
Sept, looking at the ideas in the famed Undercurrents ‘<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Radical Technology’</b> book and their relevance now, was great fun.
Not just a nostalgia</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">fest.</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">And</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">not</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">all</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">about</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">technology-</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">though</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">choices</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">about</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">that</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">shape</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">social</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">choices,
or is it vice versa? Certainly, as was clear at the conference, there’s </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">a polarisation
between what some call ‘ecomodernism’</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">and</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">deep</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">green</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">thinking,</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">with</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">tech and</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">society</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">looking</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">very</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">different</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">in</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">each. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">The vision offered by some eco-modernists involves centrally run
intense technology, based on nuclear plus hydroponics/vertical farming- almost
‘space colonies’ on earth! With the selling point being that these
almost sealed cities can be high tech concentrated population centres,
leaving the rest of the ecosystem more or less alone to revert to
wilderness. All sorts of problems: a living urban consumerist hell, run by
technocrats, with growth central. The other extreme is the very deep green
wilderness view, with no growth and low impact tribal groups scattered
around using low tech in bioregionally defined pockets. Sounds like
Wales as George Monbiot would like it! </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">Lots
of problems there too..it needs low population. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">Less extreme is a mix of smart high tech and decentralisation,
but with stablised human activities distributed across the ecosystem, except in
a few (large) protected areas, in the belief that we are part of the
ecosystem and should remain so as long as we learn to live in it
better. Lots of problems- can we balance populations and resources fairly?
And limit growth?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">RT2 explored some paired down versions of the above:</span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">1 A ‘surprise free innovation’ global scenario in which
clever new high tech deals with eco limits and problems and supports continued
growth (for some!). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">2. A low tech decentralist future, based on sharing and deeply
green and humanitarian values. Something most would like, but which may be a
long way off. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">3. A rapid transition approach based on the best green tech,
using CATs Zero Carbon Britain model. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">There were no definitive conclusions at RT2, but the debate on
the options was lively. No 1 inevitably was pretty unpopular, but might be
where we are heading as things stand. For some 2 was lovely but unlikely,
except perhaps in niches, although it might spread in time. 3 was maybe more
technically credible, but still politically hard to achieve.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">There was surprisingly little debate about the technologies
themselves. Although some clearly felt that some of those in 1 were suspect, it
seemed to be assumed that technology could deliver a viable, if a little
quantitatively frugal, lifestyle in 2, and a coherent system in 3. Much less
clear was the exact mix, the basic social structure and the scale of the systems
it relied on. How much localization? How much high technology? Who decides?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">The debate on the way forward seemed to focus mainly on </span><b style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">consumption</b><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">, with, in the energy area,
the good news being that some energy consumers are now also
energy producers, although these prosumers (and energy co-ops) will
of course have to buy in PV kit manufactured somewhere- most probably in
China in sweat shops! That opens up all sorts of issues about global trade and
working conditions. But also automation. Some say that production can
be done by automated plants- as US libertarians like Bookchin and
the Goodmans once thought. It seems unlikely, but who knows. </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;"> </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">A new work-free world! Though can
personal services also be automated? Will we see bands of redundant
aromatherapists storming the RT2 Bastille?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">The focus on consumption does of course lead back into the
debate on </span><b style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">growth</b><span style="color: #191919; font-family: times;">, a key issue at
RT2, and also of course more widely – see my last post. Can it really be
halted?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Which brings us back to the deep green view. Technology could help avoid
some resource and impact limits, but, it is argued, given a finite planet with
limited carrying capacity, no amount of technical fixing could deal with our
eco-problems, or our social and political problems, if we remained in a
growth-reliant economy based on continued and ever accelerating expansion of
resource use. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Guardian</i> came up
with a similar view- renewables weren’t enough,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">big economic system
changes were also needed:</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #1538ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jul/15/clean-energy-wont-save-us-economic-system-can</span></u><span style="color: #1538ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">So we are talking about a move to a steady-state</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">global</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">economy</span><span style="color: #1538ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">:</span><span style="color: #1538ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><u><span style="color: #1538ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615010471
<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">However, as noted above, many RT2 enthusiasts still felt that new
cleaner greener technologies could help make this possible -and livable. They
could be part of the practical focus for local transitions, enabled by emerging
grass roots groups and building up capacity for a more decentralised
co-operative society. Radical stuff! </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Updates on the initiatives and ideas explored were promised:</span><u><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></u><u><span lang="EN" style="color: #1831ef; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.radicaltechnology.org</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">One of
the proposed links forward was to the next conference,</span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">the </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">40 years on
celebration of the Lucas workers alternative plan, held in Birmingham in
November: </span><span style="color: #4646ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><u>http://lucasplan.org.uk.</u></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">In looking for alternatives to job cuts and
the dole, the pioneering mid-1970s Lucas Aerospace workers plan had been
ahead of the curve, challenging established thinking about what could
be produced and what was needed. It identified many
social useful product ideas, including a range of
alternative energy technologies that have now
become mainstream, as we seek to avoid climate change: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-47fc-The-Lucas-Plan,-then-and-now#.WDr4QFxB_2s"><span style="color: #420178; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-47fc-The-Lucas-Plan,-then-and-now#.WDr4QFxB_2s</span></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #131313; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">With the social and environmental issues now if
anything being even more urgent, current political and economic priorities
need to be challenged, and support for, and awareness
of, greener approaches to technology is now wider than it
was in the 1970s. </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">So the conference asked, what can we learn from this celebrated
grass-roots initiative? Can we do more and better than they did?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: times;">There
were some expectations that perhaps were wrong and could not be fulfilled. With
Trident in mind, the poster for the conference talked of ‘Jobs Not Bombs’, and
depicted Lucas Aerospace as a ‘defence company’, whereas in reality, like
British Aerospace now, it was active across the aerospace sector, in civil
aviation as well as military systems.</span><span style="font-family: times;">
</span><span style="font-family: times;">That detail may not matter, but clearly it didn’t make bombs! But like
all high tech engineering firms, in theory it could make almost anything. So
why not wind turbines and solar systems? Actually it and its parent company
Joseph Lucas, had tinkered with ideas like that- Lucas even built a battery
electric car.</span><span style="font-family: times;"> </span><span style="font-family: times;">However, no market existed
for that sort of thing at that time. The Lucas workers plan sought to create
one, for example by attempting to engage Local Authority support and cash for
the alternative heating systems it proposed and calling for government support
for other public-sector led projects. That didn’t work - it was a time of cuts.
Local Authorities are now if anything even more strapped for cash, but there
are some good local projects, often featuring renewables centrally.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">A
range of local community and trade union groups certainly attended the
Birmingham event and some interesting ideas for community transitions and
industrial conversion were discussed. It was somewhat more focused than the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Radical Technology 2</i> conference, with a
different, more activist and politically committed audience, as you might
expect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">There was an interesting debate in Birmingham </span>about
automation and its impact on jobs, and also about the role of
alternative/radical technology- the main focus of RT2. However, the emphasis in
Birmingham was more on political control: </span><u><span style="color: #4646ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.redpepper.org.uk/what-if-the-workers-were-in-control/</span></u><span style="color: #4646ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: times;">So
what’s the bottom line? Clearly AT/RT has a place in the transition process,
but just switching to new better technology, like renewable energy systems,
does not automatically lead to a better society. There are several African and
Latin America countries getting near 100% of their power from hydro (Norway
too), but that doesn’t make them into utopias. Scotland, now getting over 50%
of its power from renewables like wind, was maybe a more progressive country
than England, but this technological commitment was a </span><i style="font-family: times;">result </i><span style="font-family: times;">of that political position, not its cause. Nevertheless, a
practical technological focus can provide a tangible context for local action,
campaigning and direct involvement via co-ops and conversion plans. It is about
a real physical change in how things are done and, to an extent, who decides on
how they are done. That seemed to be accepted at both of </span><span style="color: black; font-family: times;">gatherings, in Birmingham and Bristol.
So, </span><span style="font-family: times;">although very different, they did come to some similar views, at
least on the potential role of technology in social and political change.</span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-42167103293983589372016-11-01T05:44:00.005-07:002016-11-01T05:55:47.976-07:00An end to growth?<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Growth </span></b><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">is a
dominant economic narrative. But it may be over in the UK and anyway isn’t good
for us, says green activist Sandy Irving. He sees the<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>'shrinking' British economy as creating a real test for Greens. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘In years of boom, it is easier to critique
growth and call for another path. It is harder when actually faced with a
'recession'. The fact remains that we in the UK live, as a collectivity, in a
three-planet economy, even if products are unevenly distributed, it is
self-evidently unsustainable since there is only one planet.’</i> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">So he says the prime need is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘shrinkage
in total economic activity, the very thing that the Bank of England, all
orthodox economists and accountants and most politicians, with the widespread
support amongst the public, want to reverse. They cry out for action "to
get the economy going" (i.e. growing). Yet such growth will doom any
chance of combating the climate emergency and the many other symptoms of
ecological ruination ahead. There is also solid evidence that, beyond a certain
point physical growth creates more social negatives than pluses (sometimes
called 'affluenza'). It is evident that across nature, from our very own bodies
to ecosystem development, that growth must give way to a steady-state’</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">He admits that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘there is
some scope for greater efficiency and better management in the economy. But
they cannot get round the limits to growth. Indeed, via positive feedback and
the 'rebound effect', efficiency gains are routinely cancelled out. Technological
breakthroughs tend to bring all sorts of downsides’.<span style="font-size: 15px;"> </span></i></span><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times";">So he claims </span><i style="color: #16191f; font-family: Times;">‘economic
shrinkage is actually the name of the game if there is going to be any chance
of building a sustainable society. The selling of that message, unpalatable in
many quarters, is another matter, one separate from the logic and evidence
behind the message itself. The challenge is to find ways of making such
contraction palatable’.</i><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times";"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">He goes on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘One way is to
focus on quality of life, on matters such as health, community vitality, basic
security, and, yes, happiness.</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #2a3cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.5pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Japan
has had, roughly speaking, a comparative steady-state economy for a number of
years, albeit one at too high a level of economic throughput.</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.5pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">In wartime, there have been strong limits on what
people can consume. It does not necessarily bring social collapse if the
trappings of consumerism shrink. In Britain many people were actually healthier
during the Second World War, if the deaths and injuries of war are put on one
side) Acceptance is easier if fairness in distribution of a more limited
largesse is ensured. Our tragedy is that most people cannot/will not see that
today we face threats on a scale even greater than those of wartime. Certainly,
the impact of unchecked climate change will be greater than World War 2’<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">He adds that<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> ‘a smaller
economy is not only needed to meet that challenge. More positively, there could
still be investment in certain activities that really do deliver social
well-being and environmental security. Sustainable economy activity will also
tend to be more labour-intensive compared to ones dependent on high inputs of
fossil fuel energy and comparatively scarce raw materials (high grade metal
ores, rare earths etc). To that extent it is the better option for job creation
(alongside work-sharing). A smaller economy would leave more physical space for
non-human species, so many of whom are now threatened by extinction’.</i></span><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">He concludes <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘the current
threat of a recession will test whether those who in the past have talked about
a 3-planet economy and its unsustainability really meant what they were saying
or whether it was all just hot air. Instead of calling for the economy to be
'kickstarted', we should be pushing for radically different policies, for
better not bigger, e.g.</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.5pt;"> </span></i><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fsteadystate.org%2Fdiscover%2Fpolicies%2F&h=tAQHY2hg8&enc=AZMvZN_kaNncLvT3R61gy7U5SEzrIdgdfRJPiq8OKGwcsEQ12iW-1jLo4NVVv8jjiBgUyxnfLYPGVuvV-276Mf4td9Wp89e6YF2vo1yQb3GX8pdV7PeMRI9Y7T3bF0I-689pQEhTs4x_FLgmpkWTRoa8&s=1"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #2a3cff; font-size: 10.0pt; text-decoration: none;">http://steadystate.org/discover/policies/</span></i></a></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #16191f; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times";">T</span><span style="font-family: "times";">here are some alternatives
to, or at least modified versions of, this deep green view. For example, if the
focus is set worldwide, then some say that, for many of the poor in the world,
growth is the only realistic hope of being able to rise above (or even to)
subsistence-level existence. That in part is due to the horrifically imbalanced
global pattern of wealth, power and access. Change that and maybe the poor
would not have to rely on pathetic ‘trickle down’ economics topped up by growth
- the main aim of which is of course to maintain high levels of wealth for some
by keeping the system expanding. In a global system based on ruthless
competition, rival chunks of capital (the assets owned and controlled by
companies and the investment capacity of speculators) fight it out for market
shares. If the rival companies are all to survive and prosper then the overall
global market has to expand. So demand has to be stimulated by any means
possible. This process can be tamed a bit (by governments nationally and
internationally, pressured by green NGOs) to limit the worst excesses of
resource misuse, abuse of the environment and human exploitation, but the
world’s affluent consumers continue to feed it, their greed for ‘more’ (ideally
at less cost) being enlisted in its support. Attitudinal changes, voluntary
simplicity, ethical trade and the like, can help undo some of that, but
materialism and ever expanding consumption is so deeply entrenched in our view
of what represents a good life, changes may remain marginal, until they are
forced on us by adverse environmental or other pressures.</span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
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<span style="font-family: "times";">At present, although
everyone is complicit, it’s the rich minority who consume most and generate
most emissions. That has to change, so the poor can share in a degree of
affluence. But its nature also has to change: we <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i> need to change our materialist expectations - and also avoid
runaway population growth, or some say even aim for a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reduced </i>global population over time, to stay within earth’s
carrying capacity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">In the deep green view, the process
of change must happen soon, ideally voluntarily, and anything that offers
alternatives that seem to avoid that are dangerous illusions and diversions. So
renewables are sometimes portrayed as ‘technical fixes’ avoiding the need to
reduce energy use, while possibly creating new eco-problems, especially if
introduced in unchanged social and economic contexts. Even energy saving
technologies are sometimes seen as illusory: we just need to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">use</i> less.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s not to say that such things will not
be valuable in the steady-state, balanced and decentralised society they look
to, but on their own they are not sufficient- we need radical and global social
and cultural change. To a small degree that has happened: green values are now
quite widespread and some of that is due to the emergence and adoption of new
eco-technologies. But in the main all they do is enable life to go on much as
before, with the new technologies in the main being produced and sold in the
same old way. Some market relations may have changed, challenging some parts of
the supply/retail system (the big utilities), but PV solar domestic ‘prosumers’
are still consumers, buying in PV kit probably manufactured in sweat shops in
China!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">Can we do better? What tools do we have? In the energy context, the
basic technologies exist now, or are being developed, but we are only just starting
to put them together in ways that challenge the old economic model, via grass
roots initiatives, energy co-ops and community owned distribution grids. It’s
patchy. Germany is a leader, and local Transition movements are spreading. But <span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">its huge task. Though they can
challenge rapacious competition, these local initiatives don’t really tackle
the key issues of production and consumption-led growth. To take this all on fully
would require a wider movement for social, cultural and political change. A big
project.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-53100638361291382012016-10-01T16:23:00.003-07:002016-10-31T06:05:40.425-07:00The Lucas plan revisited- ahead of the curve<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">With the</span><span style="color: #0740ff; font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">40<sup>th</sup>
anniversary of the Lucas workers celebrated alternative plan coming up, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Breaking the Frame</i> group,
has, with others, organized a conference in Birmingham in November. It aims to
link the experience of radical trade union groups then, trying to redirect the
technology focus of their companies to create sustainable, socially useful
work, with similar current campaigns:</span><span lang="EN" style="color: #3336ff; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">
http://lucasplan.org.uk</span><span lang="EN" style="color: red; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">The <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Alternative
Corporate Plan</b> produced by shop stewards from the 13 <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Lucas Aerospace</b> plants in the mid 1970s outlined a series of
socially useful projects that they felt could secure employment on a
sustainable basis. The company was heavily reliant on defence orders and the
Labour government of the time was cutting back and there were threats of large
scale redundancies. The cross-plant cross-union shop stewards ‘Combine’
committee thought that, to avoid that, the companies resources and their skills
could be used on alternative products. The diversification plan they produced included
medical aids, new transport systems and a range of alternative energy
technologies, then very novel, including solar and wind technologies. The idea
was that the public funding saved from the defence cuts could be retargeted to
socially useful production along these lines.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">The overall plan was resisted by the
company management, who objected to being told what to produce, although some
prototypes were developed under pressure from the trade unionists or by
supporters independently. For example, an absorption cycle gas-fired </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">heat pump,
based on an early Open University idea, was built by Lucas at its
plant in Burnley, with some middle management actually being quite keen
since there were prospects of a joint OU/Lucas research grant from the (then) Department
of Energy. A 15kW prototype was tested, but no funding emerged and the
idea was not followed up. See p22/23 in this report: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/19946/1/EPMK_Aug_09.pdf"><span style="color: #420178; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">http://oro.open.ac.uk/19946/1/EPMK_Aug_09.pdf</span></a></span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Heat pumps are nowadays very widely used,
although </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">very few <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">gas </i>fired
heat pumps have been built - the 150kW (th) one currently used at
the OU is a rare example. See: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://modbs.co.uk/news/archivestory.php/aid/9841/__65279;Ener-G_teams_up_boreholes_with_absorption_heat_pumps_.html"><span style="color: #420178; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">http://modbs.co.uk/news/archivestory.php/aid/9841/__65279;Ener-G_teams_up_boreholes_with_absorption_heat_pumps_.html</span></a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Most heat pumps are electric powered and designed for use in
individual homes (and the OU has surveyed them). That approach is backed
by government, partly as a way to use the excess nuclear electricity they will
have at night from the proposed new nuclear plants at Hinkley
etc. There are all sorts of problems with that- the power grid
couldn't supply enough power to take over from ordinary gas central heating
(which is their plan)! Gas heat pumps would be better- the gas grid is
already there. And they would also be bigger, and more suited to community
heating. That was very much to Lucas plan’s credo - not small eco-toys for
middle class houses, but large efficient systems for council high rises.
It’s arguably what we should be doing now. It’s the same for many of the
other ideas that were in the plan. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The political point is that this group of workers could identify
what was needed in the communities to which they belonged- and they had the
skills to make the technology. But they didn’t have the power or money to make
it happen-and the Labour government offered warm words but little practical
help. The official trade union bureaucracy was also less than helpful- the
Combine committee was an unofficial grass roots organisation which they did not
recognize. Then, in 1979, Maggie Thatcher was elected and launched a major
attack on<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the trade union movement,
culminating in the defeat of the Miners. Many of the Lucas activists were
sacked or moved on and the battle for radical product diversification was lost.
There had been some other similar ‘workers plans’, following on from the Lucas plan,
for example in power engineering (Clarke Chapman and Parsons in Newcastle,
backing CHP) and in defence (Vickers in Barrow, with wave power being one idea),
but they too were side-tracked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>40 years
on it’s still the same. What actually emerges is what government and corporate
leaders think is best. Though some now do think that renewables are a good
idea!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The Lucas campaign may have failed, but the idea lives on, with,
in the current context, one focus being the development of alternatives to employment
on projects like the proposed Trident nuclear submarine system renewal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With UK coal plants closing there is also a
need to develop alternative employment options for staff in that sector, and
the same would be true when and if the nuclear programme is abandoned. What the
Lucas campaign showed was that it is possible for the workforce themselves,
rather than external experts or technocrats, to develop plans for the future,
and arguably better plans, more attuned to needs rather than profits. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #191919; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The need for better plans for sustainable energy and other
environmentally appropriate technologies is now if anything even clearer. But
are we any more ready for that politically than in the 1970s?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the ideas from the Lucas plan had
been taken up by radical local authorities, notable the GLC via its local
Technology Networks, but they too were seen off as politics swung to the right
in the 1980s. With trade union power much diminished and local councils on the
defensive, as yet, no new power base exists, although the renewal of grass
roots support for Labour, and the growth of wider green movement, may change
that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may see at the Birmingham
conference… <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: SegoeUI; mso-themecolor: text1;">Catch up on Lucas:</span></b><u style="text-underline: #420178;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: SegoeUI; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></u><u style="text-underline: #420178;"><span style="color: #420178; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2014/jan/22/remembering-the-lucas-plan-what-can-it-tell-us-about-democratising-technology-today</span></u><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="HangingIndent" style="margin-left: 3.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="HangingIndent" style="margin-left: 3.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The academic
journal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Science as Culture</i> recently
had a special issue on ‘Contested Technology’ (Vol. 25 No.3), which includes my
paper on ‘The Alternative Technology movement: an early green radical
challenge’ identifying links to and conflicts with the Lucas workers plan
campaign and practical focus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were
some ideological differences, with the ‘AT’ movement more inclined to
small-scale experimental projects, the Lucas plan more concerned with meeting
the needs of existing mainstream communities. In the extreme this revealed a
class-based conflict, with one Lucas Combine member disparaging some of the AT
movements proposals <span style="color: black;">as ‘gimmicks for individual
architect built houses’ and ‘playthings for the middle class’. Is that still
the case? Or have both sides now moved on?</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
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<div class="HangingIndent" style="margin-left: 3.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09505431.2016.1164400"><span style="color: #3b3bff; text-decoration: none;">www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09505431.2016.1164400</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;">: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-79531985040015898502016-09-04T13:29:00.000-07:002016-09-04T13:29:27.243-07:00Community-scale Energy<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Most people say <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">small scale</b> energy project are a good
idea-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>inherently better than large
inflexible centralized corporately owned projects, allowing for local ownership
and control. However, there can be economies of scale. Some renewable energy
projects are best technically and economically at larger scale- wind turbines
for example, due to the basic physics of wind energy capture and
conversion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly since the power
available is proportional to the square of the bade size and the cube of the
wind speed, a large diameter 1MW wind turbine on a good elevated site with good
wind speeds will produce far more electricity than 1000 small diameter 1kW
domestic-scale micro turbines in low wind speed urban environments. Moreover,
in a multi-MW wind farm with a lot of MW units, the cost of linking them to the
grid and maintaining them can be shared. Similarly, for wave and tidal projects,
their location is geographically defined and they will more efficient at
multi-MW scale. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Some individual domestic scale
energy technology can be efficient, PV solar for example, with power delivered
direct from the user’s roof, but even in that case there are economies in bulk
buying, installation and operational scale. Despite the need for grid links, it
is cheaper and easier to buy and install a lot of units together at the same
time in a large solar farm. Or possibly as part of a major roof-top deployment
programme in a collective housing project. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">So, although there may be
exceptions, it is usually best to go for larger scale. But how large?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times";">Community scale</span></b><span style="font-family: "times";"> projects may
be a sensible compromise between scale and efficiency- small enough to be
locally owned and controlled, but large enough to be efficient.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Local ownership of wind farms has proved to
be a good way forward in many countries, not least in avoiding opposition to
projects imposed by remote corporate owners. That is how wind took off so
dramatically in Denmark, with most of the projects being locally owned. Energy
co-ops are now spreading across Germany, with about 40% of German renewable
energy capacity being locally owned- although some of that is domestic PV,
owned by individuals. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">While there is clearly a
strong environmental sentiment at work, the main driver for this expansion has
been economics and the availability of attractive rates from Feed-In Tariffs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Policy changes can slow
progress, although the momentum and new market that has been created means that
unit costs are falling and new cheaper technology is emerging, making subsidies
less vital. So it’s a success story, both in terms of capacity and the
expansion of local control, to the extent that conventional energy suppliers
have now lost control of much of the market. There are however some issues. The
spread of distributed self-generation makes it harder to manage the overall
energy system, balancing supply and demand. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">Most renewables are variable,
and most individual PV self-generators still top up from the grid to meet their
needs when there are lulls in local solar availability and at night. So they
still need grid links, which also allow them to export any excesses, and offset
the costs of their system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some may now
be installing battery storage, as an alternative, and some may even try to go
off grid, but then they loose the export earnings and it maybe be hard to meet
all their energy needs in this way. Arguably it makes more sense to retain grid
links and import power when needed, especially since, as noted above, it can be
generated by larger more efficient projects elsewhere. Grid links make it
possible to use power generated at the best sites, and if suitably extended,
help balance and smooth out local variations in supply across wide areas. On
that basis, sticking just to autarchic local generation maybe suboptimal,
whether by individuals or communities. It may require much more local capacity
than otherwise needed and also more local storage, with in many case small storage
systems being less efficient than large ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Set against that is the possibility than local grid linked storage could
be seen as a form of distributed storage, taking power from the grid when
available, and, along with local generation, reducing the need for large grid
power exchanges at peak demand times. The need for more grids to handle
variable renewables and their local impacts, is certainly an issue in some
countries. That’s one reason why <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Greenpeace</i>
has suggested that the ratio between small/local and large/remote generation
should be 70:30. That’s optimistic, depending on the location. Given the high
energy use and their spatial constraints, few cities <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>could meet 70% of their energy needs from renewable
energy generated within their boundaries: they would have to import power from
rural and offshore areas. The best achieved so far, in a survey of 13 leading EU
city initiatives, has been around a 7% contribution from ‘internal’ urban renewables
sources: <a href="http://www.energy-cities.eu/Energy-Cities-Members-delivering"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.energy-cities.eu/Energy-Cities-Members-delivering</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times";">None of this means that
local generation projects are a bad idea. They can play a significant role,
especially at the community/municipal scale. But aiming for high levels of
local self sufficiency may not be sensible or needed. Instead we need to
consider the system as a whole, while opting for local generation wherever
possible, so as to gain the local social benefits. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A strict interpretation of ‘local generation’
would imply near total self-sufficiency e.g. for villages and town, but in a
more realistic version they could import power from projects nearby e.g. local
wind farms. However, as argued above, even that seems unnecessarily
restrictive- what is wrong with trading local excesses to where there is a need
and at other times importing power from locations where it is best
generated?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">That implies that there will
still be some large scale possibly corporate led projects, run to top the
system up, although in principle some of these could be municipally owned and
controlled. So could the local energy distribution system, including heat supply
via biomass fired CHP/ district heating networks and large heat stores, topped
up with solar heat. That would still leave conventional companies supplying the
energy hardware, unless new co-operative/locally owned manufacturing
enterprises emerge. Or even nationalised companies, taking over the whole thing,
including transmission. How far we might or should go in this ‘socialised energy
economy’ direction obviously depends on your political views! But in the end it
all comes down to money and power. Community groups have little of either at
present, local councils not much more. So there is a way to go. However, we
have seen the growth of grass roots power and local projects in Germany, and
that has changed the situation. Similar initiatives may emerge in the UK: the
GIFT campaign looks exciting, with, potentially, municipal involvement: </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #3a3eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.nuclearpolicy.info/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GIFTS_initiative.pdf</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #3a3eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="Default">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Bottom-up grass roots initiatives
may look weak when faced with corporate power, but with conventional politics
all but frozen in many countries, they offer one of the few signs of life. See
this excellent review:</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #3a3eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115013477<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">There is much to do at national
level and policy changes are needed, but grass roots activism may help to open
up new possibilities. For helpful updates on local green energy projects around
the UK see: </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.microgenscotland.org.uk</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #173aff; font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-1417127828360384042016-08-01T02:47:00.003-07:002016-08-01T02:47:49.775-07:00Radical Technology Revisited<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times;">In the early 1970s there
appeared a magazine called <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Undercurrents:
The journal of radical science and people’s technology.</i> It challenged the
directions and uses of technology in modern societies, suggesting alternative,
more humane pathways. In 1976 it spun off a book, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Radical Technology</i>, describing radical approaches to shelter,
energy, food, materials, communications, autonomy and other perspectives. It
inspired many people and many of the ideas have entered the mainstream. Energy
was a key issue, with wind mills, biogas and solar power much to the fore, but it
was clearly not the only one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">Forty years on, are any of
those ideas still relevant today? The Radical Technology 2.0 conference in
Bristol, September 2nd-4<sup>th</sup>, will revisit <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Radical Technology</i>, asking where it was right, where wrong, and
what can be learned from its successes and failures. </span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">It looks
like being an interesting event, ranging widely as might be expected and
opening up many issues. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">The</span><span style="font-family: Times;">1976<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Radical Technology </i>argued for radical
decentralisation, small and simple local technologies, dispersed populations
and cooperative communities. But are these decentral approaches still
appropriate? Many of the original authors and practitioners of radical
technology appear to have moved to embrace the need for some engagement with
large-scale, sophisticated technologies.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>However,<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>is ‘technology’ still a useful focus?
Or should the focus now be on political change and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">social</i> technologies? Why is innovation predominantly used to expand
consumption, rather than to solve urgent problems? Was trying to ‘keep it
simple’ a lost cause? Can ‘alternatives’ only survive in ghettoes and protected
niches? Can we go ‘Back’? Or are technological ‘progress’ and economic growth
the only options?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">That’s certainly the high tech, high growth eco-moderniser’s
view, contrasting strongly with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the ‘deep
green’ stable-state decentralists view, with both usually saying the other
view won’t deliver. Though not many of the former are likely to be at the
event! Most people may well want something in the middle, although the issue
then is will that be radical enough to deal with the various eco and
energy crises, with the nuclear issue being a likely stumbling block.... For
detail of the RT 2.0 event:</span><span style="color: #1831ef; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN">www.radicaltechnology.org</span></span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">‘Radical Alternatives’ were not just a fringe environmental concern or
the preserve of communes and local co-ops. There was also the Lucas Aerospace workers
Alternative Plan, with its</span><span style="color: #0740ff; font-family: Times;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">40<sup>th</sup>
anniversary gathering coming up in Birmingham in November. That gathering,
organized by the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Breaking the Frame</i>
New Luddite group, aims to link the experience of radical trade union groups
then, trying to redirect the technology focus of their companies to create
sustainable, socially useful work, with similar current campaigns:</span><span style="color: #3336ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> <span lang="EN">http://lucasplan.org.uk</span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: red; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">That
follows on from the recent launch at the TUC of a </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">new
edition of Mike Cooley’s influential 1970’s book, ‘<i>Architect or Bee? The
Human Price of Technology’. </i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Cooley
was leading member of the Lucas workers campaign. </span>Frances O’Grady, the
current TUC General Secretary, in her new introduction to the book, asks </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">‘How do we maximise the upsides and minimise
the downsides of technological change? How do we make sure rapid scientific
advances empower rather than enslave working people? And how do we mould this
progress towards socially useful purposes such as the fight against climate
change, or public services tailored towards the needs of disadvantaged groups?
Ultimately, how do we win the political and industrial battle for
control?’ <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">http://www.spokesmanbooks.com/acatalog/Trade_Union_Classics.html#a872</span><span style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">The world
has of course moved on since the 1970s, with </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-themecolor: text1;">many of the technology ideas that
emerged then now commonplace, </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">but as that quote suggests, the issue are still the same. So looking
back at these early initiatives may still be valuable. The mood then was very hopeful,
with old structures breaking up and new ideas spreading. But it’s not that
different now: progressive movements are still enthusiastic about the
possibilities of change and the changes that have occurred since the 1970s, for
example in the energy area, would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>have
amazed the activists then. Wind and solar power were just dreams, now both are
major energy suppliers globally. The political battles however are much the
same. And now the word ‘radical’ has new less appealing associations, implying
the imposition of narrow fundamentalist views.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But, in all areas, there are non-dogmatic challenges to the status quo
and, as ever, resistance to that. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
challenge is thus both technological and political. As Lund emphasized in his
book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Renewable Energy Systems</i>
(Elsevier 2104), what is needed is not is just a technological change, it also
involves a social choice process, without which the technical side will flounder
or be side tracked. He looks at how to enhance ‘choice awareness’, moving beyond
the paralyzing status quo view that ‘there are no choices’– or only one choice.
He notes that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘existing organizations
will often seek to create the perception that the radical change in
technologies is not an option and that society has no choice but to implement a
solution involving the technologies that will save and constitute existing
positions’.</i> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #0740ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629614000838</span></u><span style="color: #0740ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Even if we
limit ourselves to just energy issues, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">as Miller et al
put it, ‘</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">the key choices involved in energy transitions are not so much between
different fuels but between different forms of social, economic, and political
arrangements built in combination with new energy technologies’</span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">:<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i></span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/csac20/22/2#.VSp3DIX1uv8</span></u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Of course,
energy is only one issue, linked to many larger ones, such as economic growth
and social equity. And as deep greens often say, technology is not the key
thing: we need social and political change first. Although others say it has to
be a coevolution process: technical change can help social change and vice
versa. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then again, some say that </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">technology can potentially be liberatory, undermining capitalism</span><span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">:</span><u style="text-underline: #0000E9;"><span style="color: #0000e9; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"> </span></u><u style="text-underline: #0000E9;"><span style="color: #0000e9; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">http://isa-global-dialogue.net/the-end-of-the-world-the-end-of-capitalism-and-the-start-of-a-new-radical-sociology/</span></u><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #191919; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">All of
which, still begs the question of who make the changes? Unless that is you
think the process will be automatic, as technology evolves. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Plenty to debate at the 40<sup>th</sup>
anniversaries! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">*The
newsletter I edit, Renew, is also approaching its fortieth anniversary-
although there’s still some way to go. It started life as as the Newsletter of
the NATTA network, which was set up in 1976. But the first issue didn’t emerge
until 1979. Though it has come out bimonthly in various formats ever since:<u> </u></span><u><span style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">https://renewnatta.wordpress.com</span></u><span style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: Times; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS6F00; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-46535850503359562932016-07-01T04:19:00.002-07:002016-07-01T04:26:31.585-07:00Renewables- the problems of success<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">Brexit
may be dominating our thoughts at present- a self inflicted disaster, likely to
lead to a slow down in renewable development, amongst many other things. See
this helpful if grim analysis: </span></em><u><span style="color: #403dff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;">https://energyfutureslab.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/is-brexit-really-brexit-at-all-and-what-will-it-mean-for-us</span></u></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">Brexit
could mean the UK falls even further behind the rest of the EU, abandoning even
its low 15% by 2020 renewable energy target. On that basis they may be glad to
see us go! But rather than dwelling on that, in this post I’m going to look at what’s
happening elsewhere in the EU and globally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s a story of success- although that also bring problems. <o:p></o:p></span></em></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;"><br /></span></em>
<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">Sweden
is in the lead in the EU, now meeting over 50% of its energy needs from
renewables. Several other EU countries are over or nearing 30%, some, like
Austria, helped by their large hydro capacities. But many others, with less
hydro, are also doing well, especially in terms of electricity supply. Over 32%
of Germany’s electricity is now generated from renewable energy sources. </span></em><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://energytransition.de/2016/01/germany-is-20-years-away-from-100-percent-renewable-power-not/">http://energytransition.de/2016/01/germany-is-20-years-away-from-100-percent-renewable-power-not/</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></em><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">Denmark is even further ahead -wind energy alone now
supplies 43% of its annual electricity.</span></em></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">However,
there can be problems with success. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At
times there’s too much renewable energy. </span></em><span style="font-family: "times";">So, <em><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-style: normal;">like Germany, Denmark has been
looking to </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Power to Gas</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
conversion/storage options to capture the value of this surplus. In one
variant,</span></span></em> <em><span style="font-style: normal;">excess wind-derived
electricity is used to electrolyse water to make hydrogen gas, which is then
reacted with carbon dioxide (CO</span></em></span><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt; font-style: normal;">2)</span></em><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;"> captured from the air, power plant
exhausts or from industry to make methane, which can be used as fuel for power
plants, heating or vehicles: </span></em><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt; font-style: normal;">http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/surplus-wind-stored-as-gas-nid3196.html</span></u></em><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;"> <o:p></o:p></span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times";">A larger, longer term,
problem is that the more renewable energy there is in the market, and the lower
its price, the lower is its market value- it sees off expensive fossil fuel,
cuts overall prices, but also thus cuts its potential income. See this slightly
garbled analysis:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://energyandcarbon.com/the-declining-value-of-wind-and-solar-to-the-german-power-system">http://energyandcarbon.com/the-declining-value-of-wind-and-solar-to-the-german-power-system</a><em><span style="font-style: normal;"> <o:p></o:p></span></em></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<em><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">Basically, it’s all about a race to the bottom in marginal costing.
Good for consumers (retail prices should fall), good for the planet (emissions
will fall), but not good for companies trying to make a living out of energy
supply (their profit margins fall). The trouble then is that this may mean the
growth of renewables might slow, as profit-seeking investment capital dries up.
It’s a standard problem of success- once you reach the top (dominating the
market) there is nowhere to go but down, especially since, within the
sustainable future credo, the aim is to limit growth once needs have been met.<o:p></o:p></span></em></div>
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<em><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">There is a way to go before this issue gets serious. Renewables are
still not dominant, only supplying around 23% of global electricity, and there
is plenty of room for them to continue booming around the world, not least
since, in many poor countries, even basic energy needs have not been met. There
is also plenty of money to be made. Global investment rose 4% last year, to
$329bn. And most studies see it accelerating into the future. High renewables
scenarios from academics and NGOs are now very familiar: e.g. </span></em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdf">www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdf</a></span></u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">and</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/can-the-world-convert-to-total-renewable-energy-by-2050/article27989205/" style="font-family: times; font-size: 10pt;">www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/can-the-world-convert-to-total-renewable-energy-by-2050/article27989205/</a></div>
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<em><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">However, the big energy companies are also coming out with what a few
years back would have seemed like heresies. A recent </span></em><em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">R&D Paper from EDF looks at a future
dominated by renewables, which supply 60% of the EU’s electricity by 2030, with
nuclear only playing a moderate role (90GW total). </span></em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/EDF-study-for-download-on-EP.pdf<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: "times"; font-style: normal;">That
would lead to major changes. EDF calculates that wind and solar would displace
160GW of baseload capacity, but would require 60GW of fossil backup, so the net
reduction is only 100GW. Even so that would mean a huge swing away from fossil
fuel. </span></em><span style="font-family: "times";">Coal capacity is reduced by
170GW from 250GW to 80GW. However, gas is less impacted. Combined cycle gas
plants (CCGT) is increased by 15GW from 70GW to 85GW. Fast start up open cycle
(OCGT) plants, used for grid balancing/peak load matching, is increased by 65GW
from 35GW to 100GW.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Of
course that doesn't have to be done using fossil fuel: as I have described in
my new IoP e-book ‘Balancing Green Power’, there are other options for
balancing, including the Power to Gas approach mentioned above, with stored surpluses
being available for storage to met shortfalls, and some of this also being
shifted via inter-connectors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That,
along with smart grid demand-response, is what most of the academic and NGO
scenarios suggests, and most also avoid reliance on nuclear, since (amongst
many other things) it is inflexible and makes balancing harder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of them look to 100% renewables by 2050,
a view also shared by some trade groups. For example, </span><span style="font-family: "times";">the World Wind Energy Association says near 100%
renewable energy grids will be established by 2050. <strong><span style="font-weight: normal;">Stefan Gsänger, WWEA Secretary General, said </span></strong><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘there are no basic technical barriers for
wind power to contribute a large portion of the future global energy
supply. 40 % wind power in 2050 is a realistic scenario, and the remaining 60 %
will be covered from other renewable technologies so that the world
can </i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times";">reach a 100 % renewable power supply (at) latest by the
middle of this century.’</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times";">That may sound optimistic,
and certainly there will be many obstacles and problems to face, but even the
relatively conservative International Energy Agency sees renewables roaring
ahead. By 2040, it says renewable power generation will reach 50% in the EU and
around 30% in China and Japan, and over 25% in the US and India.<span style="background-color: #f5ebc2;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdf</span></u><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 24.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">The IEA </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">still sees fossil fuels as
playing a major role, along, to a lesser degree, with nuclear. Hopefully that
may not be the case. Certainly the pace of change in the last few years has
been remarkable, with coal being challenged and nuclear flat-lining at around
11%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Governments may still at times drag
their feet and try to prevent change (as in the UK- still backing nuclear),
but, as the costs of renewables continue to fall and the direct and indirect
costs of using fossil fuels grow, along with the risks and costs of nuclear,
the change process seems unstoppab</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">le:<span style="color: blue;"> </span><a href="http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/wind-solar-boost-cost-competitiveness-versus-fossil-fuels/">http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/wind-solar-boost-cost-competitiveness-versus-fossil-fuels/</a></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Can it be
accelerated?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>IRENA is trying to speed
things up via its ‘Age of Renewables’ programme, hoping to double renewables
globally by 2030, while halving energy use:</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> <a href="http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=642">www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=642</a></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s for energy not just electricity and
is in line with the goals of the UNs <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sustainable
Energy for All </i>programme. But even that is not really maximal: with costs
falling, more could be done, as the NGO scenarios outline, aiming for 80-90%
renewable energy contributions in many countries by 2050. Then we may hit some
of the problems of success! Though, post Brexit, it remains to be seen if the
UK will be in the running..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">*My
new book ‘Balancing Green Power: how to deal with variable energy’, is available
from Institute of Physics Publications. </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-0-7503-1230-1"><span style="color: #420178; font-size: 13.0pt;">http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-0-7503-1230-1</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-8179883257183373532016-06-01T05:33:00.001-07:002016-06-01T05:43:00.405-07:00Political struggles for sustainable futures<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: large;">The next few months will see
some momentous political challenges on both sides of the Atlantic, with
potentially major implications for energy and climate policies. </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b></div>
<div class="Default">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 14.0pt;"><br /></span></b>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 14.0pt;">In the USA</span></b><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 14pt;">:</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> The imminent party
Conventions will decide on the presidential candidates. Here’s a roundup of the
various candidates’ energy platforms, including use of what seems to be Jacobson’s
state-by-state 100% by 2050 renewables scenarios for its rendition of Bernie
Sanderson’s position: </span><span style="color: #4037ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/no-more-berning-of-fossil-fuels/"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/no-more-berning-of-fossil-fuels/</span></a></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";">That doesn’t make it according
to the Hass blog, at least in California. But it’s not clear if Sanders does
actually subscribe to this set of scenarios- which avoid biomass use. That,
unsurprisingly, would make it harder to meet the 100% target if demand can’t be
cut. </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Sanders
has certainly backed renewables very strongly and wants nuclear phased out-
with no more plant licensing renewals. Unlike all the other candidates: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="https://berniesanders.com/people-before-polluters/invest-in-clean-sustainable-energy/"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">https://berniesanders.com/people-before-polluters/invest-in-clean-sustainable-energy/</span></a></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">He is clearly the most radical candidate by
far, a self professed democratic socialist, sharing many positions with the
European left and most greens.</span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times";">However, sadly, baring
last minute upsets, it seems unlikely that Sanders will get the Democratic
nomination at the Convention, despite massive grass roots support: the delegate
system is arguably biased to the allegedly ‘safer’ status quo i.e. the
supposedly more likely to win national figure, Hillary Clinton, who is backed
by wealthy donors. So it may be Clinton v Trump in November. A terrifying
choice, with Trump </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">saying, </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">on</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">climate
change</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">‘I am not a believer. I
believe there’s weather. I believe there’s change, and I believe it goes up and
it goes down,</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">and</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">it</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">goes</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">up</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">again.’</span></i><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-global-warming_us_5601d04fe4b08820d91aa753"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-global-warming_us_5601d04fe4b08820d91aa753</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Trump's opposition to wind
energy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is also well known (in Scotland
too!) and he has been dismissive of solar as ‘unproven’ and as too expensive-
he has talked of 32 year pay-back times: </span><u><span lang="EN" style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://solartribune.com/where-does-trump-stand-on-solar/</span></u><span lang="EN" style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "times";">Looks like</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 8.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">an all round disaster, if he makes it through, quite apart from his
other policies. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like the Mexican wall,
neatly satirised in this April 1st spoof, which quotes him allegedly saying</span><span style="color: #181818; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘we make the left-wing tree-huggers happy by
introducing a price on carbon, and we make my right-wing supporters happy by
closing the funding gap for my wall’</i>: </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u><span style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://carbon-pulse.com/17802/</span></u><span style="color: #181818; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: large;">In the EU:</span> </span></b><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UK referendum on whether to leave the EU
opens up many issues. The case for staying is strong, but it’s hard to predict
what will happen. <span style="color: black;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many do not like what they see as a wasteful,
unaccountable, remote EU bureaucracy. There certainly are problems. Should we
try to sort them, or just walk away? To maybe not so splendid isolation?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">In terms of energy policy, the
EU has pushed renewables quite hard and forced the UK to do so too. Certainly the
UK has always been conservative in terms of renewable support systems, pushing
for the adoption of competitive market approaches as opposed to Feed-In
Tariffs. But Germany has now adopted a similar approach, as has the EU as a
whole. So that’s unlikely to change whatever happens. However, although the UK
has a huge renewable resource, more than most other EU countries, it has
dragged its feet on developing them (the RO was much less effective that the
FiTs), with its percentage contribution being amongst the lowest in the EU. So
if the UK removes itself, the residual EU should be able to do better. Leaving
the UK to stew in its own juice. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">But if the UK stays in the EU, not much new
is likely to happen. It’s getting a bit better slowly, with offshore wind and
PV booming, but if it stays in, the UK will still remain a drag on the EU. So
some Europeans might welcome a UK exit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So would some UK reactionaries! </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">Brexit<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>would mean that the UK could ignore </span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">EU energy and climate directives and that might provide a precedent
for some climate/ anti green c</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">ontrarians to call for us to exit from
our own commitments too:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://euanmearns.com/the-origins-of-the-2008-uk-climate-change-act/">http://euanmearns.com/the-origins-of-the-2008-uk-climate-change-act/</a></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Whichever way it goes, a big new development is the European Energy
Union, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">the
EUs initiative seeking to complete the single energy market programme and
integrate EU energy systems more effectively. This opens up many issues: for
example is building a big competitive market really the best way forward? Won’t
it squeeze out smaller players?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or will
it tame the big players, by exposing them to wider competition? Is there any
alternative to integration given the need to link of renewables across the EU
with supergrid networks?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">The UK may be an island (or bits of islands), but, as renewables expand,
it will need more grid links to the continent for balancing and trade: it may
have a net surplus. Consultant group Pyory has looked at the costs and benefits
of links and says they are ‘overwhelmingly positive’ and that may hold for the
UK up to 9-11GW, as already envisaged long term, although it adds that beyond
that it is less clear. While an EU-wide system would have overall
socio-economic benefits for the EU, the benefits from more cross channel links
might be marginal and even fall for the UK. </span><span style="font-family: "times";">It’s the Brexit issue distilled! </span><span style="color: #3336ff; font-family: times; font-size: 10pt;">https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/505222/080_Poyry_CostsAndBenefitsOfGBInterconnection_v500.pdf</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">Some
of the institutional issues are explored in a timely book by Prof. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Garamond; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">Rafael
Leal-Arcas</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;"> from
Queen Mary College London.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It suggests
that the creation of a European Energy Union might be an effective and viable
solution to the energy security problems that the EU is facing, by making it
easier to trade energy inside the EU. It notes that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘the EU currently has to rely on energy-rich countries for its energy
needs, many of whom are politically and economically unstable. This places the
EU in a vulnerable position’</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">.</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></i><span style="color: #3139ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://www.claeys-casteels.com/eu_energy_studies_8.php<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">The
book explores the institutional and legal framework for the creation of a
European Energy Union, looking at some of the key issues, which it sees as the
need to support </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">security, solidarity and trust, the
completion of a competitive internal market,</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">moderation of
demand and the decarbonization of the EU energy mix i.e., greater use of
renewable energy.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">Much</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;"> of that would of course be academic as far as the UK goes if it
leaves to EU, though the UK might be able to join in some of the commercial
trading, but it could not shape the market system design or its rules. It’s
just one example of what the UK would miss out on if it leaves. </span><span style="color: #423eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">However, for the average household, all this may be too remote. It may
be that, in terms of energy issues, Brexit will be seen as just avoiding
unwelcome lifestyle impositions.</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">It was
amusing that the EU decided to delay its draft ruling on inefficient domestic
appliances, </span><span style="font-family: "times";">including toasters (a classic UK kitchen item), until after the
referendum. </span></div>
<div class="Default">
<span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/28/eu-inefficient-toasters-ban-delayed-avoid-pro-brexit-press-attack">www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/28/eu-inefficient-toasters-ban-delayed-avoid-pro-brexit-press-attack</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">Meanwhile, the EU seems to
be sticking with its target of a 40% emission cut by 2030. Following the Paris
COP21 accords, it has apparently abandoned its fall back target of 30% (if
other countries did not make sufficient commitment), but it’s is evidently not
willing to go much further. Some had called for 45%:</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/02/eu-plans-no-change-to-climate-target-before-2030"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/02/eu-plans-no-change-to-climate-target-before-2030</span></a></span><span style="color: #3336ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;">Maybe the threat
of Brexit shaped that, although in the past the UK has been amongst those
pushing for higher climate targets, in part no doubt with nuclear expansion in
mind. The EU as whole is meant to be agnostic on nuclear: that’s up to each
country, with several key countries strongly opposed (notably Germany and
Austria), but there is a strong pro-nuclear trend within the higher echelons of
the EC. Hard to say what Brexit would mean on that issue, but the EU would
loose a strongly pro-nuclear country- the Scottish bit apart. If the UK leaves
the EU, that may of course precipitate calls for another<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scottish independence vote, and if that led
Scotland to break away, then, with its huge renewables resource, already
supplying 50% of Scotland’s electricity, the energy situation for the residual
UK would look very different. </span><u><span style="color: #3336ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-29387178865769519652016-05-01T11:33:00.000-07:002016-05-01T11:38:00.827-07:00Green energy balancing: impacts and reactions<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">Renewable energy sources
are variable, and ways have to be found to compensate for that. Fortunately
there are many, as my new book ‘Balancing Green Power: how to deal with
variable energy,’ tries to show. While no single grid balancing option will be
sufficient on its own, it suggests that, taken together, in an integrated and
widely interconnected approach, using a range of renewable sources, including
the non-variable options, effective balancing should be possible. Certainly the
range of approaches is quite large, including energy storage, flexible backup
plants, smart grid demand response and supergrid imports and exports. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">However, some may have
problems. <span style="color: black;">For example, in relation to balancing of
local surpluses and shortfalls across wide areas by interconnectors, it remains
unclear how much excess output will be available when needed for trade</span>.<span style="color: black;"> Much will depend on prices and market structures, as well
on which renewables are developed and where they are located. Perversely, if
supergrids spread, countries may be tempted to reduce their renewable
over-capacity, and so have less to trade. It is also likely that there will be
large surpluses in the summer, when demand is less and solar at a maximum,
during which time few trades will be viable or needed, with some of the
renewable capacity being left idle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Storage capacity will also be unused then, unless it is inter-seasonal
storage, and not much of that may exist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Given that
renewable capacity may have to be set higher than would otherwise be needed to
meet demand, there will also be surplus production at other times, for example
when wind output is high and demand low. As critics have pointed out, in some
scenarios, assuming extensive renewable expansion, the surplus can be quite
large and would be very wasteful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, this misses the point that, not only can some curtailment be
avoided by supergrid exports, some of the excess can be stored directly, or
converted into valuable storable fuels, for later use, possibly in other
sectors e.g. heating and transport.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: Times;">In addition to technical
and economic issues like these, which I look at in detail, there is also the
question of social and environmental impacts. <span style="color: black;">Given
that the aim of balancing is to aid the development and use of clean, green
energy systems, it is fortunate that most of the balancing systems looked at in
the book seem to be environmentally unproblematic, with perhaps the exception
of pumped hydro storage. Some environmentalists have opposed large hydro
projects, though that has mainly concerned major new projects in remote areas
that might not be suited to pumped storage. Much of the current development
work concerns modifying and perhaps linking up existing, often smaller, hydro
projects, so that they can operate in pumped storage mode, although some new
medium-scale systems are also being developed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Some energy
storage systems involve the use of toxic materials (e.g. in batteries), but
non-toxic versions are being developed. Hydrogen storage and transmission also has
risks, but so does the storage and transmission of most fuels, with hydrogen
arguably being one of the less risky options: it is lighter than air and so
disperses easily. Supergrid links may be invasive, but there are options for
overlaying them with existing grids, or putting some sections underground. That
is easier with HVDC than with conventional DC grids since, as the energy losses
in transmission are lower, there is less heat to dissipate, although going
underground would still add to the cost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">The use of
biomass, as a firm source of energy, and for production of biogas as a possible
energy storage medium, opens up some environmental issues. Some
environmentalist oppose the use of biomass for energy production on the basis
of land-use and ecological impacts: it depletes a crucial carbon sink, reduces
the area available for food production and can undermine local biodiversity.
However, biogas produced from farm and food wastes should not face these
problems, and avoids the release of methane into the atmosphere, in which case
it should be able to play a role in balancing variable renewables on a
sustainable basis. Some other forms of biomass may also be less of a problem,
short rotation coppicing of fast growing non-food crops for example, although
clearly careful regulation is needed, as with all types of renewable
system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Although the
environmental and safety issues of the balancing options do not seem
insurmountable, in some cases, there might be negative public reactions to
deployment, as there have been in the case of renewable deployment generally.
On the supply side, some of the changes will be essentially invisible to the
public. Most utility-run storage facilities, pumped hydro apart, will look much
like any other plants. Similarly for most back-up plants and associated
biogas/syngas stores and Power to Gas conversion plants. As indicated above,
supergrid links may however be much less invisible, although, like hydro, they
would be remote from most people, and, with supergrids, there are options for
going underground in sensitive areas. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">On the demand
side, there would be more intimate and widespread interactions. It is not clear
how consumers will react to smart grid demand management and time-of-use
pricing system and how much that will help limit peaks and avoid energy waste.
Most consumers are likely not to want to have to be bothered with energy
management, so automated systems may prove acceptable, as long as they see some
benefits. These benefits however may be longer term and not just economic and
there are data protection and privacy issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">However, if the
new system can be seen to deliver energy reliably, without undue costs or
impacts, and without too much need for behavioural change, then it may be widely
supported. Then again, some consumers seem willing to voluntarily adopt new
energy systems, perhaps wishing to make personal contributions to energy
sustainability on behalf of future generations. The growth of the ‘prosumer’
self generation movement in many way challenges the technological and market
status quo, making old certainties redundant: a new system may be emerging. And
that will have to include new balancing systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">‘Balancing Green
Power’, Institute of Physics Publications: </span><span style="font-family: Times;"><a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-0-7503-1230-1"><span style="color: #420178; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">http://iopscience.iop.org/book/978-0-7503-1230-1</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-55651708528509896482016-04-01T05:21:00.002-07:002016-04-01T05:35:14.996-07:00After Hinkley: Plan B<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">In March, Lynne Featherstone, a peer and former coalition
minister, speaking in the House of Lords, asked: <i>‘If it does not proceed with Hinkley Point, what is the government’s
plan B for the security of our energy supply in future years, given that the
support for renewables industries has been completely undermined by the
government and that there is still no commitment to the </i></span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/swansea"><i><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">Swansea</span></i></a></span><i><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span></i><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Bay tidal lagoon, which would provide energy for 120 years –
three times as long as would a nuclear power station?’</span></i><br />
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">With the Hinkley nuclear project looking increasingly likely to
fail, she was not alone in seeing the Swansea tidal project as part of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a ‘Plan B’, and as in any case, as better than
nuclear: David Jones, a Tory former cabinet minister, said: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘Nuclear projects are finite and have
potential unforeseen consequences in terms of disposal of waste, [but] tidal
lagoons provide a clean source of power that, built on a Victorian scale, will
last for many decades if not centuries.’ </i>Another Welsh Tory MP, Byron
Davies, said the lagoon <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘has the
potential to produce energy that is cheaper than even nuclear and gas’, </i>while
the Labour MP Paul Flynn said tidal energy was <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘free, British and of immense power, whereas the source of energy for
Hinkley Point is an imported form of fuel that will leave a legacy for all
time’.</i></span><u><span style="color: #5938ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></u><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria;"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/10/swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon-energy-project-hinkley-point-wales">www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/10/swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon-energy-project-hinkley-point-wales</a></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Are they right? </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">Andrea Leadsom,
the energy minister, told MPs that the Swansea Bay scheme was ‘not comparable’
to the new nuclear station. Sadly, she is right, it’s only ~300MW compared to
the 3.2GW nuclear plant- over ten times larger. And although its capital cost,
put at around £1bn, would make it cheaper/MW than the £24bn Hinkley project
(roughly £3m v £8m/MW), its load factor would be very much lower (maybe 18% v
90%), so the cost per kWh of electricity produced could be ~20% higher. Or even
more, if EDF’s figure of £18bn for Hinkley is used (the £24bn figure is an estimate
from the EU including the full project finance costs).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly it’s been said the lagoon would
need a much higher level of CfD support than Hinkley (around £160 v £92.5/MWh),
although that could be reduced if the CfD contract ran over a long</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">period.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">Hinkley’s</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">contract</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">is</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">for</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">35</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">years.</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">Renewables</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">have</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">only</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">been</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">given</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 9pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">15</span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: GuardianTextEgyptianWeb-Reg;">years.</span><br />
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">Leadsome did admit that </span><i style="color: #262626; font-family: times;">‘the
Swansea Bay project was in our manifesto. The government absolutely recognises
its potential to deliver low-carbon, secure energy for the future. However, it
was not a commitment to deliver a contract for difference. This government [is]
absolutely determined to prioritise keeping costs down, to be on the consumer’s
side and to decarbonise at the lowest price while keeping the lights on.’</i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";"> So
while the project was</span><i style="color: #262626; font-family: times;"> ‘of huge interest’,
</i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: "times";">the government</span><i style="color: #262626; font-family: times;"> ‘must keep a close eye
on the cost’. </i><br />
<span style="font-family: "times";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times";">That is
not to say the Swansea lagoon and other larger, maybe cheaper, lagoons, cannot
be part of Plan B, but, if we are seeking to replace the 3.2 GW Hinkley and the
maybe 16GW of new nuclear at one time envisaged, we will need a lot more
renewable energy projects as well as energy saving projects. That is </span><i style="font-family: times;">on top of</i><span style="font-family: "times";"> the already quite large
contribution from renewables, with around 14GW of wind and 10GW of PV supplying
about 20% of annual UK electricity at present. Renewables could reach over 30%
by 2020 on current plans. </span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="font-family: "times";">However, there
is significant potential for expansion beyond that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;">Hinkley is
currently meant to come on line by around 2025, though more likely, in the
event, it would be a bit later- if it goes ahead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if it doesn’t, there have been several high
renewables scenarios, running up to 2030, that might be candidates for Plan B</span><span style="font-family: "times";">. For example from CAT: </span><u><span style="color: #5839ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.zerocarbonbritain.org</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Greenpeace: </span><u><span style="color: #4e3aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.greenpeace-energy.de/fileadmin/docs/pressematerial/Hinkley_Point/20160121_Study_Windgas_HPC_English.pdf</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">and</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;">Friends of the Earth:</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span><span style="color: #4e3aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/plan_cbe_report.pdf</span><span style="color: #4e3aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">And also,
for the South West: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><a href="http://mollymep.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-power-to-transform-the-South-West_FINAL1.pdf">http://mollymep.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-power-to-transform-the-South-West_FINAL1.pdf</a></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">They have their strengths and weaknesses. The Greenpeace ‘Windgas’
scenario focuses on direct replacement of Hinkley with wind, with power-to-gas
conversion ensuring that the output would be the same- reliable around the
clock. That’s fine for polemical purposes, meeting the intermittency issue head
on. ‘Wind to gas’ is clearly clever and sensible. But a full alternative
scenario would also include other renewables and other energy management
options, as in the Friends of the Earth scenario. However, that was produced in
2012 and much has happened since then, including many advances in system
management. Similarly, for the partial South West scenario. We need something
new, fuller, and up to date. The best so far seems to be another one from
Greenpeace: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.demandenergyequality.org/2030-energy-scenario.html"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">www.demandenergyequality.org/2030-energy-scenario.html</span></a></span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">That aims to supply 85% of UK electricity
from renewables by 2030</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times";">. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">However, it too has
limits. It downplays system management and does not look at the economics.</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">Neither
does the even more ambitious CAT near-100% renewable <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">energy</i> by 2030 scenario.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">There are several 2050 UK renewables/low carbon scenarios which
can act as guides, including one from a team of leading academics, which
focuses heavily on local level systems, including biomass/waste-fired CHP,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>feeding local heat networks: </span><span style="font-family: "times";"><a href="http://www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/realisingtransitionpathways/news/distributing_power.html"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/realisingtransitionpathways/news/distributing_power.html</span></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">And more recently, Dr Mark Barrett at University College has updated his
extensive low carbon UK Energy system model, which runs up to 2050. He is
presenting it in a talk soon: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><u style="text-underline: #420178;"><span style="color: #420178; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/ucl-iedelearn-lecture-a-renewable-uk-tickets-22457647428</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">So we have plenty of guides. Renewables are getting cheaper by the day- on
shore wind is already 30% cheaper than Hinkley would be by 2025/26 and it will
get even cheaper: </span><u><span style="color: #5839ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">http://realfeed-intariffs.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/onshore-wind-schemes-now-being.html</span></u><span style="color: #5839ff; font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">So will PV- there are already projects going
ahead with lower CfD strike prices than Hinkley would get. And offshore wind
could well also be cheaper by then:</span><u><span style="color: #5e3cff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> https://ore.catapult.org.uk/crmf</span></u><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "times";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "times";">I</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">ndeed, the recent
Budget announcement said offshore wind CfDs would be set at £85/MWh for
projects commissioned in 2026- much less than the £92.5/MWh Hinkley would get
then, if it’s built.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="color: #423eff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/508193/HMT_Budget_2016_Web_Accessible.pdf</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">More will need to be done on the heat and transport side (e.g.
with bio/green syngas), but electricity use is actually falling -generation
fell by13% over the last decade:</span><span style="font-family: "times";"> </span><span style="color: #4c34ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10pt;">https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511931/Electricity.pdf</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-themecolor: text1;">G</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">iven proper attention to energy saving, it
should be possible to come up with a viable non-nuclear strategy, based on
wind, on and offshore, PV solar, large and small, and biomass/waste CHP, as
well as other renewables, including tidal current turbines and lagoons, along
with the necessary balancing/energy management systems. The latter might add
10% to costs initially, but smart grid and supergrid systems will also lead to
savings- the recent National Infrastructure Commission says of up to £8bn p.a.
by 2030. </span><span style="color: #4e3aff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;">www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/505218/IC_Energy_Report_web.pdf</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;"> </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "times"; mso-themecolor: text1;">However, someone
has to put this all together and campaign effectively on it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At present Labour’s shadow energy minister,
Lisa Nandy, still seems in thrall to nuclear- her Plan B is apparently to go
for mini nukes! Can it just be left to the NGOs and academics to rescue the
situation? </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #3139ff; font-family: "times"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-72282509792117653912016-03-01T06:07:00.001-08:002016-03-01T06:07:22.634-08:00The right mix: in praise of grid links <div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">A new <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Greenpeace</b>
report on getting to 100% renewables globally by 2050 revisits the familiar
issue of scale: what’s the right mix of large-scale centralised and small-scale
local projects? It suggests a 70:30 ratio, arguing for mostly decentralised
power (i.e prosumer domestic PV projects and community scale distributed
generation), although it admits this will require more local capacity than if
more imports from more efficient larger projects elsewhere were allowed. It
does assume some are (e.g. from offshore wind and CSP), but not much: it’s keen
of to get the benefits of local control and ownership, and it also worries
about long distance transmission energy losses and grid cable visual impacts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">The issue of local control is an important
one, but over-reliance on small-scale local systems comes at a cost: not all
resources are even distributed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Surely
it is foolish to limit the use of efficient off-shore wind, wave and tidal
farms and CSP in desert areas?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
surely, even if they are more autonomous than now, there is nothing inherently
wrong with trading surpluses between communities?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It depends on how the trade is done.
Technically, long distance transmission losses can be low (2%/1000km) and grid
impacts can be avoided (it’s easier to bury HVDV than AC grids), or reduced by
doubling up or replacing existing lines. But the other issue is that Greenpeace
want to avoid most biomass use (not biogas from wastes, but all biomass
imports). That means more electricity has to be produced for heating and
transport. A report from the German Federal Environment Agency, UBA, says that,
in this situation, even with a lot of Power to Gas/ Liquid conversion of excess
renewable electricity (as Greenpeace also suggests), Germany will have to
import a lot of green electricity from abroad, similar in scale (but not type)
to their fuel import level now: with biomass limited, there wouldn’t be enough
from local sources. </span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">It does sound like you can’t avoid some
long distance transmission, and of course if you have it, although it opens the
door to centralised corporate power, it helps with balancing local variations
in supply and demand across wide areas, with differing resource availability.
So a 50:50 local/import ratio might make more sense, depending on location. Or,
of course, if you want more local power, again depending on location, you could
go for local biomass production and use. Forget about importing wood pellets,
and probably most biofuels for vehicles, but, in addition to AD of local farm,
food and home biomass wastes, surely some types of fast growing energy crops
for power and heat, like short rotation coppicing, can be acceptable in rural
areas, without land use or biodiversity conflicts? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Greenpeace is also nervous about hydro,
with large projects being seen as invasive, despite the fact that hydro
reservoirs can be used to help balance variable renewables, via pumped storage.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some countries wont have much hydro capacity,
but if they have grid links to other countries with hydro projects they can be
used for pumped storage. That’s already done by Denmark, using Norwegian hydro
to store its excess wind derived electricity, for later re-import when Danish
wind is low and demand high. Once again it shows how useful grid links can be,
as in fact an earlier Greenpeace study of EU options had argued:</span><u style="text-underline: #0012FF;"><span style="color: #0012ff; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> </span></u><u style="text-underline: #0012FF;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: ArialMT; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.energynautics.com/news/#GP_EU">www.energynautics.com/news/#GP_EU</a></span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">The new Greenpeace report is very good,
arguing convincingly that, with proper attention to energy saving, supplying
100% of energy globally is possible using just renewables, and would not cost
more net, given the savings on the use of fossil fuel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the issues touched on above are real
ones. Big hydro and large-scale biomass use do both open up many environmental
issues, so it may be that they have to be kept in check. Or at least be subject
to careful regulation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Similarly, there
are political issues related to trading energy, as we are well aware of with
fossil fuel and the power that has given to global energy corporations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We don't want to replicate that with
renewables. Surely we can come up with more democratic ways to manage energy
systems, even large systems, and avoid rip-off trade relationships?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That's something that is currently a central
political issue anyway, with, in the UK, much talk of taming the Big 6 power
companies. It won’t be easy. Especially as we also need to reconfigure the
energy system overall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: HelveticaNeue; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">However, as part of doing that, we have to
face the issues raised above. It will vary by country. But in general, trying
to duck these issues, by avoiding big hydro and biomass, and limiting
trade/transmission, would add costs and, arguably, make it harder to develop a
viable system. We need to decide what sort of system we need, how to link it up
effectively and equitably, what impacts we can accept and what trade-offs we
want to make between overall technical efficiency and community scale. Quite an
agenda! </span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times;"><a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdf">www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdf</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Times;">An incremental
approach is to just focus of local energy and hope that it can expand: building
up from beneath.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rise of ‘prosumers’
and local energy co-ops in Germany suggests that this might be possible,
although it has occurred mainly due to favourable market frameworks provided by
the government – and that may change. Indeed it already is, with FiTs being
phased out, there and elsewhere. In the UK, the new Shadow Energy Secretary,</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">Lisa Nandy,
has said Labour wants to ‘democratise rather than nationalise’ the energy
system. She told delegates at last years Labour party conference that every
community in the country should be able to own their own clean energy power
station. </span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://ow.ly/SPLVa"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Verdana;">http://ow.ly/SPLVa</span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">That’s fine as far as it goes, but it probably
wont be enough to completely change the system.</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thousand
Flowers</i> UK scenario produced last year by the transition consortium looked
to local councils playing a major role, and focused heavily on community-scale
biomass-fired CHP, and heat as well as power production. That might reduce some
of the power transmission issues: it would certainly be hard for the power grid
to cope with the electricity needed to meet all the UK’s heat needs. But would
there be enough biomass for that? And if so, would we be happy for it to be
used? The issues wont go away! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times;">www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/realisingtransitionpathways/news/distributing_power.html</span></u><u><span style="font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">
<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: EN-US;">All this and much more is discussed in my new IoP book
Balancing Green Power out later this year. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-21462756883296890962016-02-01T08:40:00.002-08:002016-02-01T08:40:32.705-08:00UK Energy Policy overview: not a good story <style> <!--
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Sometimes it is
worth looking back at how we got where we are. An academic paper published in <i>Energy
Policy</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;"> looks at the UK’s
record in the energy sector, focusing on RD&D and innovation policy. Under
the Thatcher government it collapsed: <i>‘From the mid-1980s onwards, market
liberalisation and industry privatisation led to a collapse in RD&D
efforts; whilst these forces were felt globally, they were experienced
particularly strongly in the UK. The UK's privatised energy companies had
little strategic interest in technological innovation and there was very little
public or private investment in energy innovation in the 1990s. One material
aspect of this was the closure of much of the UK's public research infrastructure,
with remaining skills and facilities dispersed across a small number of
isolated research groups’. </i></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">However there
were some reactions<i>: ‘A number of high-profile reviews and enquiries in the
early-2000s paved the way for increased innovation efforts, but this
turn-around started in a very gradual fashion. The principal driver for change
was an emerging decarbonisation imperative. The scale of the challenge
presented by climate change for energy systems was highlighted by the Royal
Commission on Environmental Pollution. The RCEP concluded that the UK should
aim to reduce emissions by 60% on 1990 levels by 2050, implying wholesale
changes in the production and use of energy. It also represented a challenge to
the technology-neutral principles that had dominated UK energy innovation
policy for more than a decade; the RCEP called for stronger market-pull
mechanisms for mature technologies and increased early-stage support for those
emerging technologies most relevant for the UK’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">The paper says
that actual policy response was limited: <i>‘spending levels increased only
slightly, organisational reforms were modest and there was no major shift from
technology-neutrality toward a priority-based innovation system’. </i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Nevertheless, energy and climate became
prominent issues in policy debate, and in 2001, under the New Labour
Government, the Performance and Innovation Unit (PIU) <i>‘undertook the first
systematic energy review since privatisation. On innovation strategy, the PIU
was informed by an Energy Research Review Group (ERRG) set up by the
Government's Chief Scientific Advisor, a prominent advocate of greater efforts
on energy innovation. The ERRG called for UK public spending on RD&D to be
raised to bring it in line with that of European competitors’.</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">It took time
for anything significant to happen. But the Labour Government did accept the
RCEP's recommended 60% by 2050 target. The paper says that <i>‘though this
re-established the legitimacy of long-term steerage of the energy system, it
was modest in terms of its political, economic and institutional impact, at
least over political and corporate planning horizons. The carbon emissions of
the UK electricity system had fallen steadily during the 1990s and early 2000s
and the Royal Commission and PIU both presented scenarios suggesting that the
60% target could be met largely by a gradual roll-out of renewable energy and
energy efficiency measures. Large-scale technologies such as nuclear power and
carbon capture and storage (CCS) were </i></span><em><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times; font-style: normal;">not</span></em><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;"><i> seen as central strands of the required response
at this time, at least over the short to medium term’</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">However, then
things changed, with PM Tony Blair famously announcing that nuclear power was
back on the agenda ‘with a vengeance’. Sadly the paper doesn’t explore how or
why this occurred, or the subsequent cut backs in renewables and expansion of
nuclear support. It’s more concerned with R&D/institutional issues, but as
far as it goes it is interesting. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514000147#f0005"><span style="font-family: Times;">www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514000147#f0005</span></a></u></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue;"><u><span style="font-family: Times;"></span></u></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Times;">Full
disclosure: I was a member of the ERRG. I didn’t realise it was so influential.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">So where are we
now?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are in the midst of
cuts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Energy Secretary Amber Rudd’s
energy market reset plan did not offer much new, apart from the welcome
proposal to dump coal use, just a reiteration of the wonders of market
competition: <i>‘We need to work towards a market where success is driven by
your ability to compete in a market. We need to work towards a market where
success is driven by your ability to compete in a market.’</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; font-family: Times;"><u> <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=9100851839771954205">https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/amber-rudds-speech-on-a-new-direction-for-uk-energy-policy</a></u></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Competitive
markets are not all bad. It is good to see generation costs falling.
However<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that may not lead to
reduced prices. As Rudd said <i>‘It remains frustrating to me that the falls in
wholesale gas prices have not been passed on to most households. It is also not
clear that all business customers are benefiting from competition in a market
that lacks transparency’. </i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Moreover,
the government is not actually imposing market discipline fairly<i>. </i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">It is cutting the cheapest non-fossil
options, but supporting one of the most expensive – nuclear<i>. </i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Backing Hinkley, and the follow up nuclear
plants, will push up electricity bills by much more than would backing on-shore
wind.<i> </i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Whereas the
proposal to cut support for on-shore wind and PV solar may raise costs, since
more expensive sources will have to be used if the 2020 renewables target is to
be meet. <em><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Citizens Advice
Bureau</span></em><b> </b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">says
the CfD block to on-shore wind may cost £0.5bn, <span style="color: black;">over
the term of the CfD contracts so far awarded:</span><span style="color: blue;"><u>
<a href="http://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/Energy/GeneratingValue.pdf">www.citizensadvice.org.uk/Global/CitizensAdvice/Energy/GeneratingValue.pdf</a>
</u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">Rudd says <i>‘We
need a course correction using the tools we have already developed through
Electricity Market Reform’</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">.
For all the talk about competition, her minor course correction seems to be
mainly about imposing pre-set ideologically-based technology choices, and that
seems likely to continue to take us in the wrong direction. No change (from
Thatcher or Blair) there then! Rudd says <i>‘only when different technologies
face their full costs can we achieve a more competitive market’</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">. However, in practice, most of the
choices being made are based, not on market tests, but on political
preferences. Up to a point that’s fine. That is why we elect politicians –
since not all choices can be made on the basis of market tests, even if they
include external costs. But what do we do if they get it consistently wrong on
key issues? Even Corbyn seems to be going the same way: ‘<i>While I strongly
support green energy in general, such as wind, wave, tidal, solar power and
energy conservation measures, I understand that you have to have a base of
electricity production. Otherwise when those renewable resources don't kick in
you end up with no supply.’</i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times;">
Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Leader, evidently now backing nuclear power.<span style="color: blue;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: black;">If true, we have not moved on much in 30, or indeed 50,
years</span><span style="color: blue;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=9100851839771954205"><span style="font-family: Times;">www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/corbyn-we-need-to-protect-nuclear-jobs-and-regulate-the-industry-1.1230086</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; font-family: Times;"></span></div>
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Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9100851839771954205.post-90619106672591324732016-01-01T10:11:00.000-08:002016-01-01T10:11:02.880-08:00COP21 and Renewables <style><!--
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<span lang="EN-US"> Some said the COP 21 Paris climate deal was
a great triumph, others were less sure. But most saw it as opening up the way
for renewables. It certainly should, despite the lack of binding national
targets. Pressure to divest from coal projects will grow. However, while the
COP 21 agreement acknowledges <i>‘the need to promote universal access to
sustainable energy in developing countries, in particular in Africa, through
the enhanced deployment of renewable energy’</i></span><span lang="EN-US">, as
the World Nuclear Association noted, it does not otherwise make reference to
any specific energy technology.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So
on the supply side we may see a scrabble for slots between renewables and
nuclear, along with energy efficiency on the demand side, possibly within this
sort of Deep Decarbonisation framework: <span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/DDPP-press-release-150915.pdf">http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/DDPP-press-release-150915.pdf</a></u></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Though there are other options. As the
Financial Times put it <i>‘The 1.5C upper limit is likely to be breached in the
coming decades but could possibly be regained later in the century through
large-scale net negative emissions achieved via biological and geological
carbon storage’</i></span><span lang="EN-US">. FT 14/12/15</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Some look to biochar and new farming
practices to improve carbon retention in soil, and on the supply side,
Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), although the UK
governments decision to abandon the £1bn CCS competition will have put that
even further into the future. It was anyway an outsider option, not loved by
all greens. CCS is often seen as just an expensive way to keep using fossil
fuel, with a new set of risks (sudden CO2 release), but some felt that it might
be condoned as a step to BECCS. Or could we just go straight to BECCS? No to
both say Biofuelwatch!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://www.independentsciencenews.org/environment/climate-technofix-weaving-carbon-into-gold-and-other-myths-of-negative-emissions/">www.independentsciencenews.org/environment/climate-technofix-weaving-carbon-into-gold-and-other-myths-of-negative-emissions/</a></u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">DECC says that, despite the cuts to support
for PV solar and on-shore wind, UK will meet its 2020 renewable electricity
target. We will see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But few are
confident about it meeting the overall 15% by 2020 renewable <i>energy</i> target-
progress on heat and transport has been slow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moreover, after 2020 then what?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2020 targets were imposed on the UK (and other EU
members) by the EU Renewables Directive, but the UK and others have managed to
resist any post-2020 national renewable targets being set. It’s simply left up
to each county to decide how to meet the EU 2030 emissions targets, as with the
new COP21 ‘aspirations’. DECC has said that it will continue to support
renewables beyond 2020, including up to 10GW of new offshore wind, if the price
falls, but DECC’s main focus seem to be to nuclear, apparently regardless of
the price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that could be
copied elsewhere in the EU- Hungary and Romania want new nuclear plants!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Judging by the disasters with the EPR
nuclear plant construction programme so far (long overdue and massively
over-budget) it could all come horribly unstuck. In which case global geo-engineering
will no doubt then be highlighted as an emergency measure, with all sorts of
risks associated with that. Surely rather than blocking out sunshine with
aerosols injected into the atmosphere or vast mirrors orbiting in space, we
should be using it!</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The COP 21 agreement still has to be
ratified by a majority of countries (the 55 largest energy users/emitters) and
nothing much may happen until then. Indeed it seems that the EU will wait until
the first of the proposed 5 year reviews to see if it will adopt to 40%
emission reduction target it offered if other countries backed similar targets.
Some now have, but, with no mandatory national targets, just the loose National
plans and proposals submitted to COP21, there is some wriggle room. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Writing in the Financial Times (15 Dec),
Martin Wolf was hopeful that peer pressure would suffice: ‘With every body
committed to producing a plan (because everybody agrees the challenge is
important), it will be far more difficult for any country to argue that failure
to meet its promises does not matter.’ It will be interesting to see what the
UK comes up with. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Looking globally, this thoughtful follow-up
proposal seems sensible: <span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/renewable-energy-after-cop21/">www.postcarbon.org/renewable-energy-after-cop21/</a></u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Although it worries that, if we push ahead
rapidly with building the renewable system we may run out of fossil energy
fast, unless it’s rationed and prioitised for that purpose! </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><i>‘We may be entering a period of fossil
fuel triage. Rather than allocating fossil fuels simply on a market basis
(those who pay for them get them), it may be fairer, especially to lower-income
citizens, for government (with wartime powers) to allocate fuels purposefully
based on the strategic importance of the societal sectors that depend on them,
and on the relative ease and timeliness of transitioning those sectors to
renewable substitutes. Agriculture, for example, might be deemed the highest
priority for continued fossil fuel allocations, with commercial air travel
assuming a far lower priority. Perhaps we need not just a price on carbon, but
different prices for different uses’.</i></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Well maybe, but perhaps a more urgent
problem is the attempt to slow down renewables by cutting<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>back on support systems. Dr David Toke
says that the EU’s move away from Feed In Tariffs to competitive auctions may
not actually cuts cost, but might cut capacity growth. <span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/1197/1098">http://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/1197/1098</a></u></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">And this excellent review of the EU Energy
Transition pulls no punches on what is blocking it: <span style="color: blue;"><u>http://dx.doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.2015.5.6</u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">None of these issue really surfaced at COP
21, which was focused on setting the big picture,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>maybe rightly. Some said it did very well: <span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/james-blog/2439032/cop21-a-beautiful-peaceful-french-revolution">www.businessgreen.com/bg/james-blog/2439032/cop21-a-beautiful-peaceful-french-revolution</a></u></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though others didn’t agree: it allows
many countries to carry on expanding emissions and has no binding national
targets: <span style="color: blue;"><u>https://globalclimatejobs.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/world-pledges-to-increase-emissions/</u></span>
But it wasn’t as irrelevant as the dreaded ever-contrarian Lomborg claimed: <span style="color: blue;"><u>http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/09/3720613/lomborg-misleads-paris-climate-pledges/</u></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and this tentatively hopeful view may
be about right: <span style="color: blue;"><u><a href="http://www.rebeccawillis.co.uk/is-the-paris-agreement-a-success-emphatically-yes-a-little-bit-no-and-a-dose-of-it-depends/">www.rebeccawillis.co.uk/is-the-paris-agreement-a-success-emphatically-yes-a-little-bit-no-and-a-dose-of-it-depends/</a></u></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">However, it all rather depends on what
happens next, in the EU, US, China and elsewhere …</span></div>
Dave Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16099336600590484155noreply@blogger.com0